Oh, does this mean we have to suffer an October Surprise this year and next?
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I think it shows that in about a month from now, Sanders may very well either equal or surpass Hillary Clinton in national polls. Thereās no reason to believe that Sanders is suddenly going to stop surging after consistently climbing up until literally 4 days ago. The more his name recognition has been increasing, the more he surges. The corporate media canāt hide Bernie Sanders forever. It shows that Bernie Sanders can win.
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Allow me to re-state my question as the snark it is. I wonāt be surprised when some establishment democratic party agents pull some dirty trick as Bernie closes in on taking the lead. Which, by your projections, will be October.
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Ah, I seeā¦ 
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I want this to be true. I really do. Iām sending all my hope and positive thoughts from across this side of the Atlantic. And if I meet any Americans here, who happen to be registered Democrats, Iāll certainly canvass them in Bernieās support.
But I would urge a moment of caution. Extrapolating promising trends can be misleading, and the āskewed pollsā meme is one from mitt Romneyās campaign, and we all know how that ended.
Itās possible. But polls donāt shift on their own.
Good luck.
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Iāve updated the chart to reinforce how short-term it is and added a disclaimer to hopefully alleviate any confusion it may cause. Itāll be fun to see how close or far off it is.
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Actually, if the pace of Sandersā rise maintains and Hillaryās decent continues at about the same rate, it could be as soon as September that Bernie Sanders ties or surpasses Hillary Clinton.
Just for fun, Iāll predict itāll happen around Sept 27th. I wonāt be editing this post so we can see how close or far off I will be.
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Itās one of these situations where people are so fed up with the status quo politicians, they are:
- All in a kerfluffle about Donald Trump
- Protesting by supporting Deez Nuts
- Ignoring the only real candidate because they are too busy screwing around with the first two.
Nice graph. Can you pin the crossover to Halloween and add in a scary pumpkin with Bernie hair graphic to drive the point home?
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Ok Nate, Iām with you on that calculation.
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It seems like they are already trying:
(I kid, I kid)
ETA: Damn I canāt wait to listen to this, though.
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Me too. Itāll be fun.
Hereās a little dubious street cred. I met Bernie in 2000 and shook his hand. I was at a Ralph Nader event, just as Nader was getting started. Shook Naderās hand too and said hi.
The event was at the high school in Montpelier. News reports back in the day pegged it at 400 people attending. It was more like 200. Bernie introduced Ralph, and what was awesome was Bernie went into a total RED MEAT TIRADE. His hair got all mussed up and was standing out on end; he had broken a sweat and his cheeks were rosy. He really worked up that small Vermont crowd. Then Nader spoke, not nearly as entertaining as Bernie, but still good. Remember this all happened well before Hanging Chads and the Democratic Implosion and Republican Hostile Takeover of 2000.
Also saw Bernie a few times at the Tunbridge Fair over the years, but Iād already met him and didnāt have anything new to talk about so I just observed from a distance. He was just the state rep, and then, hey, now heās a Senator, cool!
I never thought at the time that Iād see him running for Prez. All the times I saw him on Bill Maher and around, through the years, meeting up with him again in a group at the statehouse when I was a selectman, etc. Never thought for a minute he would make a runā¦ ORā¦ that heād be so damn successful at it. Anyways, thatās my Bernie story.
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Ok what other infographics need to be made? We need a compilation website with all the pertinent graphics in one place. For instance, Hillary as Senator vs Bernieās voting record during the same time period. Other ideas? Start thinking & suggesting and I am willing to lead the creation.
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Pick something from here?
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That is useful. I need a dollar value on each of the 31, defining the difference. I also need to know the rest of the 93% and dollar values on those. Any suggestions?
Except his campaign was full of crap and was backed by a complicit corporate media in many regards. There are many factors that support Sandersā rise in that poll that are being ignored/withheld/shelved by a hostile corporate media that Romneyās campaign did not face.
Weāll see. Just for fun, Iām predicting Bernie Sanders will match or surpass Hillary Clinton by around September 27th within that same poll. That is, unless the poll is mysteriously disengaged and shelved by thenā¦
On top of his current progression (and her decline) in that poll, Iām basing this estimate mostly upon evidence that he has far more supporters than the corporate media is currently monitoring (and/or disclosing) due to flaws in various methodologies that donāt properly take into account various vital factors related to Sandersā campaign and related grassroots movements that surround and support him.
For example, upward trends in social media logistics that are resultant via various high impact campaign maneuvers that are very influential, yet are not adequately reported by the corporate media. These vital factors often remain hidden (or perhaps shelved) by a hostile corporate media in an attempt to quell support and/or keep some support demoralized. Despite the media attempts to ignore or shelve these factors, they play an important roll in garnering support.
Beyond that, I think some of the resistance to accepting that the trends could roughly continue in a similar manner for another month or so is more mental than anything else.
Recent Bernie-mentum has some Clinton supporters freaking out. Sandersā fast rise this past month is now even giving some of his own supporters cognitive dissonance in various ways.
Sandersā quick rise goes against concerted corporate media conditioning, skewed polls* and widely propagated, establishment groupthink that attempts to drill into every Americanās skull that Sanders canāt win. I think that situation makes Sandersā current leap towards Clinton difficult for many people to mentally grasp and digest. I think itās similar to a culture shock situation. This wasnāt āsupposed to happenā and it certainly wasnāt supposed to happen this quickly if it ever did happen.
* For example, cell phone & land line demographics are often skewed against Sanders supporters.
I created that chart below that shows that IF (<ādo note the āIFā) the trends continue within a mainstream, national pollā¦ Bernie Sanders can beat Hillary Clinton within that same poll in little more than the progression of a monthās time:
The chart simply shows that if Sandersā remarkable surge continues at a similar rate while Clinton continues her decline at a similar rate, Sanders can overtake her in a very short amount of time. Nowhere does it say itās for certain and thereās now even that ādisclaimerā that says that Sandersā supporters need to increase support and go into āoverdriveā to make that trend continue.
The reaction on Reddit has been very telling with people desperately trying to distract from the obvious point of the simplified chart. Some are even being purposefully obtuse and stating that the chart is attempting to predict long-term trends (which it obviously isnāt) and/or stating the that the chart makes outright claims that trends donāt change and/or only move in a linear fashion (which the chart obviously does not claim).
The point of the chart is that despite all the near-constant corporate media naysaying, our massive grassroots effort for Bernie Sanders is obviously working and those that claimed that Sanders would be ādead in the waterā by now and/or was a āflash in the panā are now proven to be wrong. The corporate media, pundits and other rampant naysayers have lost credibility and itās time that we call them out on this lack of credibility when it comes to predicting Sandersā doom.
The rapid climb in the poll is remarkable due to the fact that it shows that perhaps IF Sanders supporters shun the defeatist naysaying while maintaining and increasing support, we just might be able to do what most political pundits have said (and continue to say) is literally impossible.
I think my chart is a shock to some with a conditioned mentality. Many Americans are now mentally conditioned by the repeated corporate media mantras to believe that Hillary Clinton doesnāt have a valid challenge from Bernie Sanders and never will.
Even some of Bernie Sandersā supporters are now very conditioned to expect the countless predictions that show that Sanders has āno hopeā of winning and is a so-called ālong shotā without a prayer. The truth of the matter is my chart shows that itās no pipe dream to think that Sanders can overtake Clinton and, as a matter of fact, at her current rate of decline and his current rate of ascension we can overtake her in a short amount of time in a major, mainstream poll.
Obviously, if Clintonās downward spiral suddenly stops and levels out this month, it will take longer unless Sandersā support upticks rapidly at the same time. Thatās why I make it clear within the chart that Sandersā supporters really need to increase pressure on Clinton and increase their efforts for supporting Sanders into āoverdriveā.
I think the near non-stop mental conditioning has in many ways weakened Americans and theyāre going to have cognitive dissonance as Sanders continues to rise in the polls. As Sandersā continues to climb, Iām going to keep creating these charts to document it and also show where we CAN rise next if we just, fucking TRY.
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Slightly O/Tā¦
I wonder if @the_borderer has seen this, comparing Corbyn to the Leveller, John Lilburne (oddly, I came across it via Zak Goldsmith, via Douglas Carswell).
Itās interesting to compare how the establishment Labour party is dealing with the popularity of Corbyn with the Democrats and Sanders.
The recent moves to disbar long term leftists and former Labour party members and supporters (including high profile ones like Jeremy Hardy and Mark Steel) from signing up to vote for Corbyn (the #labourpurge) is ludicrous. They want votes from disaffected Tories and Liberals, but actively want those who left during the Blair years to join parties like the Greens and Socialist Workers to piss off and stay pissed off. Given that they just got wiped out in Scotland by a party to their left, and failed to make any headway in England, youād think theyād be welcoming everyone back with open arms.
I do understand the concerns about some of Corbynās āfriendsā as a result of his activism (although I think itās overblown), and his serial rebellion as a backbencher - which wonāt help him as a leader - but heās certainly captured something that the other candidates are totally lacking. It isnāt his fault that theyāre all such uninspiring figures.
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Indeedā¦ 
This is all the polls as of literally yesterday on the 21st:
Do note that heās ticking even steeper upwards toward the end:
Thatās currently tracking 118 polls from 22 pollsters. Anyone want to take me up on my bet? Name your conditions and letās go from there.
Iām willing to bet a ban via the mods, etc. (if thatās OK with you @Falcor, @beschizza, etc.) ā Anyone who is game, let me know and letās discuss the conditions. Iām betting that Sanders will either match or surpass Hillary Clinton in this mainstream, national poll by midnight, September 27th, 2015.
Any takers?
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This is almost too sweet of a deal.
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If you lose you will get a 1 day ban and we will talk about you all day and thereāll be nothing you can do about until at least the next day.
And if you win I will write a second post about Bernie Sanders.
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