I’m starting to lean towards the “construction error that has survived for 40 years” explanation.
Possibly something like a gravel nest in one (or more) of the reinforced concrete pilings. Because there is practically no way to notice there is one - it’s underground.
This can also happen in a column, of course, but that’s above ground, you can see the concrete surface after removing the formwork. Even if you can’t see the gravel nest directly, there are usually clues you can see. Which should be noticed and acted upon.
Reinforced concrete pilings and reinforced concrete columns are basically the same thing.
Pilings are built underground. You drill a hole into the ground, inside a steel pipe that is lowered together with the drill. The steel pipe keeps the dirt out of the hole and acts as temporary formwork for the concrete. The pipe stays in the ground when the drill is pulled out. You stick a preassembled rebar cage in it, and pour concrete in it. While the concrete is poured, the pipe is pulled out. This is the tricky bit. You don’t want the rebar cage to shift from its position, you don’t want bits of concrete sticking to the pipe and being pulled up with the pipe. Problem is, you can’t see what is happening, everything is going on in a pit filled with concrete. Experienced operators might sense something is amiss, but there is little to be done at that stage except giving it a bit more time with the vibrating cylinder when compacting the concrete.
When there are indications that a pile won’t work as intended, you can redesign the foundations a bit and put in more piles. Rebuilding a faulty pile usually isn’t an option. Pilings are usually overengineered to be on the safe side.
Columns are built above ground, so a gravel nest can be noticed and repaired. Or you tear down the column and pour a new one.
Of course, instead of properly repairing a gravel nest you can just do some cosmetic patching. And if it’s an element that later vanishes under rendering or cladding or whatever…
Concrete is a composite material made from cement, sand and gravel. The Romans called it liquid stone, and that’s just what it is and that’s why it is so practical in construction.
The cement is the glue that keeps everything together, the so-called matrix. The gravel (ideally pebbles) supplies the compression resistance. You want to end up with something as uniform and monolithic as possible, so the gaps between the larger pebbles are filled with smaller pebbles and so on all the way down to sand. The very little gaps that remain are filled with cement.
A gravel nest is basically a hole where there isn’t one supposed to be.
Usually a section where the gaps between the large pebbles are not filled by anything but air.
In a reinforced pile or column this means that the compressive force which should be borne by the concrete ends up in the vertical rebar which is not designed to do that.
Design: big hunk of concrete that does what it does best, taking a load of compressive force.
Reality: a handful of vertical steel pins, each maybe an inch or so in diameter, without any lateral support, having to perform a function they were never intended to.
You see the problem.
As steel can deal with compressive force just as well as tensile force, this point of failure won’t fail right away but much, much later. Either when the load piled up gets too heavy, or when the steel has rusted away somewhat, or both - or never, when you’re lucky.
It is also possible that some of the pilings failed because something happened with the ground they’re in.
I’ve seen it with a building that had been standing for 90+ years when it suddenly developed massive cracks within hours. You could literally see the cracks forming.
The experts later agreed that there probably had been a patch of clay somewhere under the foundations, and some sort of void somewhere under that. Not uncommon in this particular area, which is also a bit hilly. A couple of months before the cracks formed, a water main broke uphill. The water probably seeped downhill, liquefied the clay, and the clay poured into the void.