2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 1)

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Russia to seize $10 billion of western leased jets

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Boeing: “We sent all of our 737 Max’s to Russia right?”

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Yeah, the book excerpt was interesting, insightful even, but his opinion piece was disappointing.

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OH yeah - good point… though I have heard rumblings that technically the USSR was on the security council, and not Russia. I seriously doubt that stunt would be pulled.

Politicians, bureaucrats, ambassadors, and government officials are all hindered by procedure, rule of law, and traditions. So when someone decides to “just not”, they have a hard time of coping within the established perimeters. It is like someone just jumps on top of a maze to reach an objective, and everyone else is zig zagging through it. (If you have ever gone through one fo those long, winding rope lines like at an airport, alone, you know what I mean.)

See, an example. You can’t just jump the turn style, there are these forms and metrics that have to be met first. While a mugger stabbing people is coming up from behind.

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But the application was posted in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying “Beware of the Leopard.”

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Ukraine has been slowly outlining a sorta legal case to that effect. As there was never really a vote and the rules around successor states in the UN aren’t clear.

Basically they’ve laid out a plausible reason to kick Russia out of the UN if it comes to that. But so long as they remain that argument can’t be used to end round their veto.

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That case should be pursued. And seeing as Russia is in breach of umpteen bits of UN charter, it should just be evicted STAT, and a combined UN force sent into Ukraine. But that is also wishful thinking as (a) China would never agree and (b) a UN force would be treated as a NATO force (or worse) by Putin and he would be more likely to press the button - he would see Russia being tossed out of the UN as an existential threat to Russia itself.

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if you read that link it isnt about giving russia what putin wants. here’s what the author proposes as a framework for peace:

  • Russia and Ukraine sign a treaty of neutrality. In return for Ukraine committing to become a neutral state with a defensive military, Russia supports Ukraine’s bid for membership in the European Union.
  • Russia and Ukraine agree to allow the United Nations establish and administer self-determination referendums in Crimea and the Donbas
  • Ukraine commits to dissolve any far-right armed groups on its territory.
  • In a phased process… the United States and the EU agree to drop sanctions against the Russian economy.
  • Nato and the Russian Federation commit to negotiate a new military security… involve a series of arms control treaties … and an explicit freeze on geopolitical competition over Armenia; Azerbaijan; Belarus; Georgia; Moldova; and Ukraine. Nato’s open door, in other words, needs to be firmly shut towards these states.

( i snipped it down quite a bit. )

more the problem is that i don’t think it’s possible to negotiate with putin in good faith.

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Where are most of the shells and bombs coming from, right now?

From aerial bombardment?
From short range artillery?
From longer ranged rocketry?
From artillery positioned on Russian soil?

What sort of military and alas diplomatic measures would reduce this humanitarian threat?

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( since this is the third time that was posted – it feels fair to ask: was anyone else turned off by his casual sexual harassment of the person doing his makeup? i can see it’s supposed to be part of his shtick… but how many times now have we seen men with that in their go-to repertoire have long histories of “overlooked” abuse. if that’s not who he is, he needs to stop. )

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FWIW, I am not actually disagreeing with you. EU membership is a cumbersome, LONG process. Leaving the EU for the UK was equally as long and cumbersome. You’re not wrong that there are established processes and you can’t just wave a wand and change the rules, even if there was the political will.

The turnstile in this case is the rule of law and the government processes. Russia jumped the turnstile when it decided Crimea was now a “protectorate” (not sure on the official language). Same with the eastern provinces. There were no forms filed or treaty to draw up new borders or an exhaustive paper on the economic impacts of such a move - it was just done.

You’re right the EU can’t really just break protocol - but it IS an examples that “Politicians, bureaucrats, ambassadors, and government officials are all hindered by procedure, rule of law, and traditions” They can’t take radical, decisive, unilateral actions because that just isn’t how the system is setup/organized.

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Thank you.

Indeed. And if we abandon the rules are we any better than Putin. What we need is better rules to more directly deal with a rule-breaker like Putin. The system needs to be set up to deal with this sort of shit in general. Like being able to toss Russia out of the UN and send in an international armed force (notwithstanding that that may or may not be enacted given the nuclear threat).

But for now I very much WOULD like to see some rules broken, but specifically focused on dealing with Putin and his invasion force. Messing with EU rules won’t achieve that.

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Russia recognised Crimea as an independent state and signed a treaty with it. The processes required by Russian law were followed. Anyway, “Russia ignored the law so why can’t we?” is not exactly a good argument.

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I agree that it is not possible to negotiate with Putin in good faith.

Sadly, I don’t think that we can negotiate with Russia and expect that they will fulfill any of their agreed obligations. They ignored and violated the UN Charter, they ignored and violated the Budapest Memorandum (Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders. Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.) They will do the same with any new agreement that they sign, as long as Putin is in power.

They lie and they cannot be trusted. Did they comply by the cease-fire and evacuation agreements that they signed? No. Will they withdraw their forces from the areas that they currently occupy even if they agree to it? No. Will they allow the return of displaced residents to the disputed areas so they can participate in auto-determination referendums? No.

Anything that they sign is useless. Words cannot be trusted anymore, only actions. They should withdraw to the pre-invasion line of control before Ukraine or the West agrees to discuss anything with them.

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(It’s true, dude’s not right on in some ways. Much of the humor of his schtick amounts to adolosecent dick and wanking jokes, and I remember some earlier videos in which he rails against “pc cancel culture.” I still watch him because the articulate anger feels cathartic and sometimes very informative, but I’ve certainly had more than qualms about giving him more clicks.)

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Dude, I bet Farage farted there…

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But it’s intended as a not as over the top as you’d hope parody of British news pundits. The grossness is part and parcel of that.

Well thank you sir for mansplaining the obvious, and handwaving away the problem.

Sexually abusive humor is still sexually abusive.

I’ve only seen a bit of his stuff.

Why am i not surprised that nevertheless, that was enough for you to declare yourself THEE expert here on the topic.

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Only tangentially related to Ukraine but it really sucks that we’re going to be buying even more oil from Saudi Arabia now:

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