AFAICT it’s more just that the pandemic is quite unpredictable at all scales. Lots of things make a difference statistically, but it’s still the case that some places with a strong response will be worse off than other places with a weak response, especially on short time scales. Exponential growth is inherently clumpy, and there are geographic factors beyond anyone’s control.
(This is also why it’s fraught to rely on the rona to make political points for you; anyone can cherry-pick anomalous data to prove anything)
