Apple's world-beating financial engineering is teaching the corporate world how to exploit Trump's tax cuts

Record prices so far. Management obviously thinks the share price will go higher, so today’s prices (or the record prices, whichever) seem like an attractive opportunity. Look at it this way - Apple could have (and probably did) buy shares at $130 in May of 2015. $130 was a record high at the time. Now the record high is $232. So was buying at “record highs” a bad decision then?

I refer the Hon. Gentlebeing to the answer I gave some moments ago… :slight_smile:

They may well be for exactly the reason you give.

It’s just that that is what chief executives always say when buying back shares. They sort of have to really (otherwise why are they doing it). One hopes they always believe it to be true.

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Apple’s P/E ratio is around 60% of what it should be, compared to similar tech-based companies like Microsoft and Google. Therefore, regardless of how expensive the stock is, it is still undervalued by 40%. WHich makes it a very good buy for the company to re-acquire its own stock, whether in order to increase their portfolio of shares to distribute to employees as bonuses, or in order to reduce the number of shares that exist in order to drive up the share price.

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“Stock splits”. Unlike Google, Apple has dramatically split its stock multiple times when it’s reached new high prices. But then they’ve had stock buybacks. Apple’s been good to its investors.

Unfortunately Apple’s shares are prone to diving on rumors and conjecture. Thus the $40 billion market cap drop after rumors of good-but-not-amazing iPhone sales led to one of their manufacturers lowering its production plans slightly. It’ll bounce back quickly, but at this point everyone expects Apple to have incredible sales, so if they’re even a little less than incredible, investors freak out.

While your conclusion may be absolutely correct, I would suggest that there are a lot of assumptions wrapped up in your first two sentences.

You’re assuming that Apple and Microsoft or Google can be compared that straightforwardly. You’re assuming that as a result Apple’s share price is too low rather than being an accurate assessment of its comparative value. You’re assuming that even if it is undervalued, buying back stock is the best use of the company’s money at the time.

They are of course widely shared assumptions and when thinking about investments one has to make some assumptions but they are assumptions.

I know from other posts that you know these are basic guidelines/decision aids rather than ‘rules’ but I think it is worth unpacking these things.

As I said above, I’m not saying that buying back Apple shares is not a good investment for the company or that Cory is right about anything in his article.

I guess I’m not really sure what I am saying other than that investing is either very, very simple or very, very complicated and if you’re taking the complicated route, it’s best not to fall into the mistake of thinking any of it is simple.

 
 

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