Honestly, if we’re going for the pure calculus of maximizing impact, Arnold (or anyone with actual damning recordings of him) should probably wait to drop the goods in October. Undecided/wobbly voters tend to be low-information and have short attention spans. You want it on their minds when election day rolls around, not buried five news cycles back.
They will, of course, insist that it’s deepfaked. And I get the impression that at least a couple of the producers are in Trump’s pocket, either for political reasons or because cash (or the promise of cash) has been dangled in front of them.
They’d best be sure they get their filthy money in advance, because there’s zero chance he’s paying them after the election.