Very rough and very unscientific estimates:
Let us assume that, on average, 5% of all infections end up in hospital. Sadly, a large proportion - think at least 20% - of those will need to be connected to a respirator. Average time in an ICU for such a case would be probably around four weeks.
According to the link provided in the piece, currently 993 ICUs are available. 56 hospitals report they no longer have ICUs available.
10249 new cases yesterday, so about 510 people would be hospitalised. Not immediately, we could assume within three weeks. About 100 of those could need a ICU. A month ago, very roughly, case numbers jumped 10k/d. So, we can assume that during the next three weeks, we’ll have about 2100 people in need of an ICU, not accounting even for tomorrow, and so on.
Again: unscientific, not taking into account anything despite the plain numbers, no spatial variability, nothing.
That Governor and his advisors has more information, and better information, of course. I really hope they do.
