The problem comes from there being multiple factions in the GOP. You’ve got the “moderates”, who aren’t really all that moderate, And their swing state compatriots. Who either don’t want a rabidly conservative candidate. Or fear the electoral fallout from pushing one.
Then you got your far right groups. Including the house freedom caucus. Who will want the most ridiculously ideological candidate possible regardless of qualifications.
And there’s your root of the infighting and internal negotiations. It’s more of a feature of the house. But the senators are more skittish about going far right because those cross state elections mean Gerrymamdering and hardline ideological areas don’t makes for safe seats.
But their margin is a hell of a lot closer. 49 to 51. So it’s a lot easier for even a single senator from their caucus to sand bag just about everything. A good lot of their infighting has boiled down to the house freedom caucus and other far right elements forcing a ridiculously right wing bill through the house and an inability to get the Senate to do the same. Often down to just a hand full of senators stamping their feet.
These guys are obstructing themselves. And while it’s sometimes easy enough for them to get routine stuff like regular judicial appointments done. Items with national attention, or any inkling of importance and bargaining power. Keep getting delayed, bogged down, or passed off for fear or not whipping the votes. Whether it’s Rand Paul showing off. Or concerns that John McCain can’t attend due to his his health. It’s incredibly easy to derail them. They need every member to attend and vote affirmative to avoid problems.
And again there’s an election in November where this will all change. It’s increasingly likely the DNC will retake the house. And the Senate is, surprisingly, in play as well.
So they have 6 months where it’s clearly possible they can confirm anyone without DNC involvement. Even a loss of one Senate seat makes that much less likely.
There’s very little reason to believe we’ll be losing a justice before the end of the year. Even if we do the current dynamic in the Senate means the GOP would likely have to moderate at least a bit. And after the midterms its far from certain they’ll even have the power to be in charge of the process.
More over all this shit starts in the Senate judiciary committee. Which is currently broken up 11 GOP to 10 DNC. There are very good reasons for the backlog on confirmations. They just don’t have unilateral, easy control of either their caucus or the Senate. It’s a different playing field, And a different environment from when they pushed Gorsuch through.
