I remember when betting markets were a new idea in the late 90s/early 2000s that there were people touting their accuracy with claims like “the Market guessed every single race correctly last time!”, but that included the time after the polls were closed and the results were announced.
In reality they pretty much track the polls because most people are operating on the same set of data.
As always predictions made this far in advance mean basically nothing. This horse race stuff is only useful to give talking heads something to opine about other than deadly plagues or whatever Trump put on Twitter last night.
