The author may be a first-rate mathematician, but there is a good deal she doesn’t seem to know about health care. For example, it makes no sense to compare Medicaid to a high-risk pool, because it’s not a program for the sick; it’s a program for the poor. The poor may have marginally worse health outcomes, but they’re hardly the tuberculosis ward.
Also, there were already some regulations in place before the ACA, even if they were insufficient. The insurance industry doesn’t get to do whatever it wants.