All these companies have customer scoring systems. We all know that you can see your Uber rating as a number from 1 to 5, but Amazon must have metrics that are a lot more detailed than that. I’m sure someone there is modeling giving different return options to different customer sets depending on the item and a lot of metrics on the individual.
That has happened to me a couple of times with Amazon already. I bought a gas can, and it came dented, and they told me to keep it. I had never put gas in it, but obviously they didn’t want to take the chance of shipping a can that might have gas residues in it.