And what plausible pathway is there to that in the case of a hard Brexit?
More over we’ve just had a couple decades of peace and prosperity. Where what peace there was ran through the EU. And the prosperity largely passed NI by, with the ecconomoc development and support that did happen coming from the EU.
Meanwhile the IRA are already arming up in expectation of that hard border. And even with the border agreements sticking around, or reunification they won’t be too happy. They aren’t exactly supportive of the Republic and reunification is not what they’re fighting for, and neither is it really independence.
A major reason why NI has become so central to Brexit is that any format for leaving that doesn’t preserve the status quo there as much as possible creates a powder keg. A big honking catch 22 hanging over the subject. The harder the Brexit, the more potentially dangerous. But a move in nearly any direction off the baseline is gonna piss one side of the nasty off. And once one of these groups starts lashing out there will be reprisals and escalation.
From what I’m seeing the closer the UK moves to crash out. The better chance there is that reunification becomes the least worst option for the Irish. And the more potential there is that the Brexit issue becomes pressing enough to shift polls and voting on the subject.
I don’t think its meant to be respectful.
I certainly don’t mean it to be fond. Radio was playing his speech just know. He sounds like Jamie Oliver’s train obsessed uncle. Kinda knob won’t shut about “the war” despite being born well after.
The IRA has been arming up, a number of arrests and a scattering of small attacks since the Brexit vote. The fears of reignited violence aren’t unfounded. These groups never really went away, and they never really had a ton of popular support to begin with, so they aren’t exactly gonna stall out due to lack of cheers. And the prosperity in question in large part passed NI by.
I think you hit on a big reason why reunification makes more sense all of the sudden. Do you stay tied to a sinking ship whose big solution to your problems has been neglect? Over fears of violence that will happen or not either way? Or do you make the only upwards move you can?
Reunification is a proactive move, it takes the decision of EU membership, peace, and economic decisions out of the UK’s hands. That alone makes it more likely. But I also tend to think its gonna require Brexit to go off, and the resulting bad times for that to really happen.
