#Brexit: Actual footage of UK trying to leave EU

IDK how realistic they are either, but at this stage it’s their best chance.

They just might get the May Deal over the line, if the DUP could be persuaded to vote for it which at the moment seems unlikely.

There’s also a lot of briefing and press talk about “the will of the people” and so on, but I don’t believe it has much effect any more.

Personally I think once Parliament as a whole gets the bit between their teeth with these indicative votes, they won’t let go of it.

The question then will be how many Tory soft Brexiteers/Remainers will defy the government and ERG to vote on any resolutions which the government wants to disregard, and Parliament wants to enforce.

Once this happens, the only way out for the government would be to dissolve Parliament, which they can’t do because of the Fixed Terms act. We might see the government bring a vote of no confidence in itself hoping to lose, which would be hilarious. Corbyn would jump on it with both feet.

This would also require the government to apply to the EU for an extension of at least six weeks to allow a general election to take place. The new government (if it was not a hung parliament yet again) would then need to apply for a further extension to allow its Brexit policy to be sorted out.

All this would take us well beyond the May 22nd deadline for EU elections, so that’s another technical problem to be solved.

There are more noises from Brussels indicating a potential willingness to extend Article 50 to the end of 2020. I think this is because the EU is increasingly hopeful that the UK will gradually drag itself around to a second referendum which Remain is likely to win.

It is in the back of my mind that it’s still constitutionally available to the Speaker to deny the May Deal a third vote. It hasn’t changed a jot since last time.

1 Like