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The solution given is dependent on EVERYONE knowing not only which wand their opponents have, but the exact odds of every possible wand working at a given moment.
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Appearing weak so that your opponents will target each other instead of you is a solid strategy no matter which wand you choose and has nothing to do with math. (It’s a bad riddle, in that it lays out the math and expects a mathematical solution, but then throws in a key component that makes the math not matter) BUT, while it is clearly stated that you can CHOOSE to miss, the assumption is that you CAN miss.
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This COMPLETELY throws the math out of whack with the official solution, in that nobody is considering the odds of an opponent actually hitting their target. The 100% effective wand is only 50% effective in the hands of a wizard who misses half the time, while the 70% wand is 63% effective in the hands of a wizard who hits his target 90% of the time.
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The riddle also assumes that YOU will be the only one to employ the missed shot tactic. It is entirely possible that we end up with a complete standoff, where the last person to act almost invariably wins.
Also-
A) How long does the vine spell last?
B) Is this a “last man standing” or “first blood” finish?
C) Is a wizard eliminated when they are hit, regardless of the spell effect itself?
This is relevant because the vines are the only spell which could theoretically incapacitate someone without permanently removing them from play. This significantly changes the number of strategies available.
