China is having some money trouble

It’s certainly not the first time a bunch of technocrats who really should have known better decided to close their eyes and let the soothing bubbles wash over them; but it probably doesn’t help that a lot of the really good shenanigans have involved provincial governments trying to pull too-good-to-be-true results out by riding real estate and banking bubbles, which clicks neatly into the ‘thermocline of truth’ problem that exists to some degree in more or less any organization that lets its culture swing too far in the direction of demanding that the underlings Get It Done rather than rewarding them for honest reporting: if irrational exuberance is the only way you are going to make HQ’s numbers you aren’t going to go out of your way to provide candid warnings of systemic risk.

It will be interesting to see how they end up resolving the situation: it’s fairly clear from the cracking down that has already happened that organic protests will not be permitted; but (unlike the US case) that’s more of a reflection of organic organization being seen with deep suspicion regardless of subject and target than necessarily an indication that the authorities are going to step in to save the bankers at any cost; rather than at least seriously considering making an example of some of the unlikeable ones if it’s the easiest way to tamp down popular discontent.