Yes they can ab test this problem into submission. However their goals seem primarily to increase the social stigma about skipping out on debts, rather than the stated goal of alerting to people who skipped out on their debts without any excuse.
Their stated goal, alerting people to debtors WHO COULD PAY, is nonsensical in the absence of extraordinary evidence. I’m sorry, the Chinese government saying a thing is not extraordinary evidence.
In the absence of that evidence, it is far simpler to assume that they are making the claim about their targets as propaganda, not truth. I would have hoped that the happy mutants here would be immediately suspicious for those reasons, rather than accept that government at their word, and I’m disappointed.
Because for all you want to say that the technocrats of the Chinese government are testing to make it work right, they have a value they are trying to change “the number of debtors with late payments”. Any attempt to restrict that value magically to those with no acceptable reason to be late must, definitionally, say that anybody who gets their debt current was able to pay.
The idea that a person is going to borrow money from organized criminals to pay their credit card bill hardly seems virtuous, but it surely is a logical effect of extreme pressure.
My serious problem here is that we, in the comfort and safety of the west, are going to argue over this as if the qualification on the targets is their government being honest. That’s insane, both on technical and social grounds.
