I’m not so sure.
Looking at 538’s aggravation of approval/disapproval ratings on day 4 of Trump’s presidency he had 45.5% approval and 41.3% disapproval. On day 910 he has 52.6% disapproval and 42.5% approval.
While it isn’t a guarantee that the approval/disapproval numbers are directly related to a vote percentage, it isn’t much of a leap. So he has lost 3% of his approval. If that maps to votes in the three key states, even at a 50% discount he would have lost. His disapproval has climbed by over 10%, again if that maps to votes even with a large discount that is a huge swing.
He didn’t win just with the votes of people that heard the racist dog whistle and liked it. He didn’t win based just on the people that saw he was slime and decided to hold their nose because he might bring them an end to abortion. He didn’t win based just on people that “vote for anything ending with an R”. He also needed to fool some of the “independent” voters that he would be a breath of fresh air. Some people really did believe his drain the swamp crap.
1 out of 50? Maybe. If it really was 1 out of 50 knowing the truth would have changed the results of the election.
Remember he not only lost the popular vote, but he can close to not winning the electoral collage either.
Or maybe I’m idealistic. Maybe it wouldn’t have convinced 1 out of 50 people to swap their votes (or 1 out of 25 to just skip voting Trump and not vote at all).
