Elon Musk thinks we're probably living in a simulation

You are right. I should have better clarified my point - I was mainly arguing against the “ancestor simulation” proposition. There really isn’t an argument to be made against the possibility that we are embedded in a “bigger” universe with different rules - because the properties and probabilities would be beyond our event horizon in that case.

But I do think there is a strong case to be made against the scenario (which was, I think, the one mainly presented in the article) where we are a sim run by a future versions of ourselves - 'cause such a sim wouldn’t manage to “fit” into the same reality it’s supposed to be imitating.

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