Ok, it’s almost certainly fair use, the more I think about it. I remembered that Devin Stone, aka Legal Eagle, paid for a Cameo from Rudy Giuliani when he hit 2 million subscribers on his You Tube channel. Stone is an intellectual property attorney. I will note, however, a couple of important differences. One, Legal Eagle didn’t play the Cameo unedited or uninterrupted. He cropped it to remove the Cameo watermark, and he stopped and interrupted the video several times to make commentary, some critical and some just straight up jokes. This makes it undeniably transformative. Two, he didn’t lie about who he was. He requested the video under his real name to avoid violating Cameo’s TOS. Now, he still arguably used it for commercial purposes and he removed Cameo’s watermark, both of which violate the TOS as it is today, but he did this two years ago and I don’t know what the TOS then were. Anyway, I doubt very seriously that Legal Eagle would have done this if he had a shred of doubt that it was legally safe.
