Er - how do you figure that, considering I explicitly list out 7+ factors that lead to their increase in popularity?
To touch on a few of your points, yes there was always a niche of collectors/shooters who were buying real machines guns and/or military style weapons. The average person buying Guns and Ammo, or Shooting Times, or the National Rifleman were not into this market and it was very niche. But there was a user base pre 90s for sure.
I agree marketing plays a factor, but I don’t think it is nearly as large of an influence as you suggest it is. The paradigm for the average firearm buyer had to shift before you started to see any real marketing. Like I said, the larger manufactures who had actual marketing budgets and glossy magazine ads were well behind the curve on the rise of the ARs popularity. You would see a small 3x2 ad in the back for an AR maker, while the new bolt gun was on the inside coves. It’s what allowed several companies that were non existent 20 some years ago become well known names now thanks to their concentration on one niche. In fact many of these companies started as user hobbyists making parts on the side and then grew the business from there.
Of course marketing influences things, but it can’t will a market into existence. In my observation it was mainly the enthusiastic user base and the other factors listed above that got the interest off the ground.
Fair point on politics making an impact. Like I said certainly the AWB boosted the signal. So did a Democrat winning the election in 2008. People, including myself, bought a rifle just because there was a feeling that we were on a time clock. Get one now and get grandfathered in or else you won’t have that option in a couple of years.
Also a good point bringing up the defense market. Though I am not sure the AR started that, it has benefited after the fact. In the 90s there was no conceal carry market, as in most states the only people who could were people involved in law enforcement. 20-30 years later and it is extremely common, and we have had a huge new market of firearms to cater to that market in the handgun arena. The AR is now marketed as an option for home defense, but in my observation that marketing is mostly after the fact.
I’ve tried to show there are a variety of different users in these discussions. But yes, Jo Blo may start off with a night stand gun, and then he meets some people at the range who let him try out their AR. And he went from, “OH man, I don’t need an AR, I’m not Rambo or anything.” to “Wow, that was really nice, maybe I should look into getting one.” For sure for every user who goes out at least once a month shooting, you have dozens of other users who buy a few guns and go out once a year or so. In the past these casual users would have a shot gun and/or a bolt action rifle. Now they might pick up a cheap AR because the paradigm has shifted that far.