How to get the most out of realizing you are wrong by using Bayes’ Theorem to update your beliefs

It doesn’t really matter, though, the real point is that you can’t take “95% accurate” and go, “Oh, I can trust it 95% of the time.”

Well, the real point of Bayes theorem is that P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B).

But for most people, I’d probably simplify the whole thing down to, “Don’t trust the media when they say ‘percent’.”

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