How you can avoid committing the "conjunction fallacy"

yeah, statistics pedagogy is a festering cesspit. i’m sorry for your experience. there are genuine difficulties in that it’s really hard to always be precise and have textbooks be less than 3,000 pages long, but really we could be doing much better. part of the problem is that the people who do bother to speak precisely tend to become mathematicians and promptly lock themselves away in attics.

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