My understanding is you’re exactly right that it’s the “happy accident” that’s important (although the photographer would argue that he does have the copyright). When you set up the camera to be triggered, you are the one doing the creative work—framing the photo, setting the conditions under which it’ll be triggered. This photographer didn’t do any of that. It’s more like he left some crayons lying around, and the monkey scribbled all over a sheet of paper, and now he’s saying he not only owns the drawing, but owns the copyright in the drawing.
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