RIAA lies about Pandora's royalty rates

David Lowry wrote a long rant on this which I tried to break down on BoingBoing’s Google+ Group. Short answer, I think his math is transparently terrible. On the G+ post there was a little back and forth discussion, but as far as I can tell the question is: what is the average expected audience of one radio play? That would give you a formula for comparing the how well each compensates artists <cough> rightsholders for their product.