I’m not a statistician, so I wouldn’t argue with you. (I do regularly use statistics as an engineer, however) I actually wasn’t referring to the Moyer article, there have been other treatments of it since. The real issue is that they only dealt with the time immediately before and after the accident (and, though it’s not a stats mistake, included the time after the accident but before anything could have reached the states in the after part). A more nuanced treatment would have considered the variance over the course of a normal year, and the variance in that period from year to year, both of which they omitted, and both of which strike me as obviously relevant.
