All the reporting I’ve seen (which has been out of the UK/EU) has pegged it as 1/250K, which isn’t an order of magnitude different, but is still quite different from 1/100K.
For what it’s worth (possibly not much), there’s an Oxford study out today whose preliminary results indicate that the prevalence of blood clots is about the same after getting any of the vaccines–mRNA and adeonvirus both. (I am moderately-to-highly skeptical of this mostly because of its source–Oxford assisted in developing the AstraZeneca vaccine.)
In any event, it bears repeating that the risk of blood clots–just blood clots, not the numerous other potentially chronic and life-altering effects–from COVID is somewhere between one in twenty and one in five. If I hadn’t already had a J&J vaccine and if AZ were available in my area, I’d absolutely take the AZ vaccine. To the extent the AZ vaccine and J&J vaccines are in fact shown to be causally connected to these blood clots, we’re still talking about the same kind of vanishingly rare injuries that–no matter how tragic and awful on an individual basis when they materialize–are nevertheless the kinds of risks we regularly tolerate in our daily lives. I drove 90 miles each way to get the vaccine. Again, assuming that the vaccines do in fact cause the reported blood clots, my risk of death from that drive was 18 times as high as my risk of getting a blood clot from the J&J vaccine and nearly eight times as high as my risk of getting a blood clot from AZ. (And that’s not factoring in the fact that those 90 miles were largely in Maryland. Have you SEEN how Marylanders drive?)
