I’m on the “the sanctions arent the main problem here” camp.
I mean, you remove them. Ok. So, what do Cubans sell to the world now to be able to buy the stuff they want to buy? Cause it is not like they produce much of anything.
Ok, but now they can get more foreign investment. Note they do get some foreign investment already, Spain for example has some companies there, but they are mostly on tourism. So, back to the 2 currencies economy and the relegation of Cubans to the non-functioning one? Investment in different industries? Like, which ones? Sugar is not the money-making machine it was, for example. But more importantly, I dont see the party welcoming investment from the US, or accepting anything that is not carefully managed by them like tourism.
We are talking about a country in which if you call somebody flagged as a dissident you sometimes get the guys that are taping the line answering your call and asking why you want to talk to a notorious counterrevolutionary. “Open” is not precisely in their vocabulary.
I mean, we can think of the best scenario, sanctions are lifted and Cuba becomes “like” China or Vietnam. Problem is, well, Cuba is a much smaller country with not much going for it in terms of industry. And well, I dont know much about the current situation in Vietnam, but China has shown us that the whole idea of lets trade with them and they will become more like us works, but in the other direction. Again, I dont see the Communist Party of Cuba changing that much their ways.
So, while lifting the sanctions will probably make the situation less bad, I’m not that convinced that it will make it good. I dont see the party accepting any “openess” that they cant manage and much less gives people any sense of independence.
Probably the most important change after the lifting of the embargo would be that the excuse that everything is bad due to the embargo disappears and the party has now to explain why things still suck. Or repress people, and I bet they go for the second option.
