I understand why you’d expect Trump to finish his term; it is definitely the most likely outcome.
But why do you think he’s “a favorite to be reelected”? He was elected in the first place very narrowly, losing the popular vote and winning a meager electoral college majority based on pretty much razor-thin margins in a couple of states. And that was running against Hillary Clinton, who had been demonized by the right-wing media for decades, and while Trump himself was still a political blank onto which people could project whatever they wanted to see.
In 2020, he has four years of being a massively divisive, ineffective, and scandal-ridden president, who has hurt or tried to hurt tons of Americans via his and GOP’s bad policies and general reckless, irresponsible behavior. That’s going to show in his vote numbers – and he won on such a narrow margin that a comparatively small loss of support can lead to a big defeat.
