Theresa May faces a no confidence vote today

I think May will use one tactic and another to run the clock down to the point where the fear of a chaotic No Deal Brexit becomes overwhelming.

At that point there will be a majority in Parliament for the May deal. (It will need some cosmetic tweaks to justify bringing it before the House more than once.)

We should keep in mind that all this fire and fury is only about the treaty which gets us over the line of 29th March 2019.

Once that is done, the May Deal puts us in a kind of Soft Brexity Limbo while our political leadership class (ha!) works out and negotiates the “real deal”. This new phase potentially could last indefinitely. Does anyone know what the desired final treaty is supposed to look like? (Canada ++, Norway +, Switzerland <= …?)

To look at it one way, a second referendum now would be as much of a silly lie as the first one, because the May Deal only gets us out of the EU in a technical sense. Realistically, it puts us into a kind of Norway - position.

1 Like