That calculation relies on UKIP getting 12%, spoiling every possible Tory seat they can, and still winning 0 seats - a lose-lose scenario for both parties.
Even assuming it will happen, it’s clearly not something that will be repeated – those votes will likely turn Conservative again, or an alliance will be agreed. In any case, without Scotland in the picture, the Tories only need about 30 extra seats, and this starting from a position where they are deeply unpopular and saddled with a generation of low-caliber figures. A permanent Tory majority in England might not be a certainty but it’s a very likely scenario.
