One of the problems with the plan is that we don’t currently have the ability for large scale testings. We are lacking testing kits/swabs, reagents and consumables to run the tests and equipment/PCR machines set up and ready to use at testing companies. It is not clear when we will be able to roll out large scale testing for essential workers.
Also the testing we do have is not necessarily accurate as it is not clear what the false positive and negative rates are. Over time we should have better estimates of those numbers and we can work with the uncertainty or error in the tests but it is something we have to account for.
It is also not clear if we will be able to make better tests both for active infections and post infection antibody tests. I hope the scientific/medical community can but its not a done deal and there are technical aspects that can make good/accurate testing difficult.
As for making a vaccine there is no guarantee of success cf the HIV vaccine or lack thereof.
One last thought is that we should be wary of privilege given to “acclimatized citizens” who have survived Covid-19 and are temporarily free to conduct a normal work and social life. The privilege will be temporary as immunity is not expected to be life long and we hope that there is a vaccine but it will still exist for a year or so. At the moment I read that it is estimated that just 2 to 3% of the population has actually caught the virus.
I sincerely hope that we can roll out accurate large scale testing in a timely fashion and make a good vaccine. The current situation is depressing in the extreme and we need some good news.
