Gerrymandering really doesn’t apply because it’s the whole state that will be voting. It really is just the more rural and older voters in the state. You can see it if you drive through rural Texas. Small towns are dying, old unprofitable farm land is being replaced with wind and solar farms (I kinda wish I had stopped to take a picture of “The Wind Farms are Killing our Communities” signs I kept seeing when I drove through west Texas last week.). Anyone saying that they can return things to the way they were or scapegoat the cities for the problems of rural Texas is going to win a large part of the rural vote.
That being said, Cruz isn’t really liked among even among Republicans in the state. Texas’ other US senator John Cornyn kept his seat in 2020 wining with a 9.6% margin.
The reason why Beto lost by 2.6% in 2018 is likely because wealthy / college educated Republicans in the Suburbs of Dallas and Houston see Cruz as the scumbag he is and the rural voter turnout was less with it not being a presidential election year.
It’s really hard to say what it is going to be like this year. My gut is telling me Cruz is likely going to do better this year because it’s a presidential year. However, the cities have grown quite a bit, but I’m not sure it’s quite to that extent yet.
