2-5 years to sci-fi level AI? Former OpenAI employee sounds alarm

Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2024/04/25/2-5-years-to-sci-fi-level-ai-former-openai-employee-sounds-alarm.html


And we’ll have Full Self Drive in 2 years, what, 5 years ago? More?

I’ll take this with a huge, huge grain of salt. Like several meters wide.


Weird how all this “AI” shit is going to be ‘life changing’… yet it still relies on the current power grid, which is run on unsustainable fossil fuels.


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Doesn’t that also mean that he’s drank the flavor-aid, and is fully onboard with the narrative, because it benefits him? :thinking: I think we need more experts in computing who are skeptical and not financially dependent on the technology being discussed, but is willing to cut through the corporate bullshit and tell a lay audience what is actually happening with AI. But far too often, people covering this stuff are more than willing to let “insiders” tell them “what’s really happening” and they become little more than faithful stenographers of the elite class. We really do need journalists to be more skeptical and understand that their role is informing the public, not participating in hoodwinking us… :woman_shrugging:


(credit to The New Yorker)


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The tech we actually have and is advancing, what people keep calling AI, is glorified algorithms and Markov chain generators. They are fast and have a lot of data to parse, but they are most certainly not the SciFi AIs we’ve imagined. This is a construction company building individual homes, good ones, but still single family dwellings, declaring the company will be building arcologies within five years because their home construction business is starting to do well.


I Mean Come On GIF by Late Night with Seth Meyers


The cult of AI pyramid scamology.

They’ve been exponentially increasing the power and data that they throw at it for linear gains. And now they’ve run out of new data, and it’s starting to eat its own poo as they harvest more and more AI output.

Unless they make any real breakthroughs, the bubble will implode before 2-5 years.


This can not be reiterated enough.

What we have currently is NOT ‘Johnny 5’; it’s the modern version of Clippy.


“The kind of AI we imagine in sci fi” means sentient artificial intelligence. The term has been watered down recently so we can feel like we’re living in a cool sci fi future rather than the worst possible timeline, but traditionally that was always what it meant in sci fi, whether its existence was portrayed as dangerous or benign. I suspect that the vagueness and lack of specific claims here is deliberate, so that when sentient AI still is nowhere close to existing in five years, it can be claimed that that was never what they meant all along.


“as long as we keep feeding in more data and more computing power, it will continue increasing exponentially.” Umm, aren’t they out of data already, and have come no where near solving the power/chip issues yet?


The only thing i worry about are the people who’ve been put in charge.

If that curve is measuring ignorance among the populace, I’d be inclined to agree.


Any car can be considered a flying car with a sufficiently loosely defined definition of “flying.”

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I dunno, for programming I’ve seen AI be nothing but useless but I’m probably actually only asking questions when I’m stumped so there probably isn’t an answer, at least not one that you’ll get by throwing a lot of stuff in a blender.

But, I did find a use case today for work to parse various texts with AI instead of a really large and ugly regex so maybe in the next month I’ll be spending some time setting up a local instance.


Yep. For any further advancement and increased accuracy I would think that they’d need entirely new, relatively reliable data sources, not all the junk online that has been going to shit because of the generative AI content. To get anything like a human-like intelligence you’d need to have to provide it with a human-like experience with sensorial inputs that could probably only be provided with a physical body out interacting with the real world. But we can all agree that we don’t want to build a bunch of Terminators, right? Right??


Word, and we are nowhere near that point.

"Our smartest robot today is as 'smart' as a stupid, lobotomized, cockroach.


Exactly. SuperClippy (SC) is more like it.


Thanks for adding the visual; I hate it.


Some kind of AI will happen at some point and it will probably be awful, because it will be created by techbros who want to become the immortal aristocracy.

But right now we are in a slimy bubble where the goal is to transfer money from suckers to slimy techbros.

My prediction is that there will be a Bankman-Freid level felony case or cases within 3-5 years when the bubble pops.