Analysis of all the elections since Trump produces no clear answers on the class and suburban/urban correlates of flippability

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I don’t think these elections will be won by getting Trump supporters to go Democratic so much as by mobilizing progressives and moderates who stayed home because “both sides are the same.”


It’s the 30 percent stupid.

Single issue voters: Guns, Gawd, and Abortion.


Exactly. It’s turnout that matters. And 538 is crap at predicting that.


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did Democrats fare better when they adopted right-wing policies that attracted DCCC endorsements, or when they ran on a Warren/Sanders left-wing alternative?

Unfortunately, it depends on the district (less so on the state, although gerrymandering continues to play a part on that scale). Act 2 of this TAL episode discusses the problem (apologies to those who are ever-so-offended by vocal fry … wait, never mind, it’s Ira Glass and he’s a guy):

In terms of strategies, don’t give money to or volunteer for any candidate who takes postions that go against liberal or progressive values (e.g. taking money from the NRA, anti-choice, removing consumer protections, etc.); same goes for any organisation that supports such a candidate. I can see some sense in Dems holding their noses and voting locally for a DINO candidate in a backwards district or state to try to increase Dem numbers in Congress, but that’s it.

As others have noted, the Dems need to stop trying to court the approx. 27% Know-Nothing base in a hopeless effort to get them to switch. Those resources are better directed toward a GOTV effort for younger people and minorities, especially in states where the majority of people live in urban areas and college towns.


Gunz, Gawd, and Gametes?


I predict that after the existential horror that has been Trump, and with the moderate Republicans starting to feel alienated, we’ll see a lot of seats flip. Democratic turnout will be high, Republican turnout rather less.

Well there’s the thing- either they’re recognizing DINOs that are being put up, or they’re not getting that someone who has only one or two policies you like is still better than a candidate who has no policies you like. Either way I’d say the solution is to stop thinking you want Or even need Trump voters. What kind of candidate will get those Dems who haven’t been voting?

I think one of the contributing factors to the confusion among democrats as to how to strategize comes from the seemingly baked in blind spot the DNC seems to have in regards to the last election. There was a candidate who had real grass roots support and was the candidate many progressives had been calling for. The way the DNC decided the primaries for all of us felt like a betrayal of a brighter future which turned a not insignificant portion of progressives against the DNC resulting in protest votes for Trump. Some estimates suggest that the protest vote was large enough to swing the election for Trump.
Here we are in the mid term run up and the DCCC and the DNC are doing it all over again. They are dumping money into the coffers of the corporatist democrats and spending money to fight progressive democrats. That same betrayal of the progressives in the Democratic party could well end up giving the same results as the last election.
When you continue to use underhanded tactics to suppress your own candidates while propping up the corporatists, some progressive voters will continue with the protest vote. At least the right is honest and straightforward about their corporatism and disregard for the voter.

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