Nice… nice one!
(extra points fro throwing the word “hence” in the sentence)
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Okay that does sound about right when you put it that way. Even take out the nomination bit and it’s still overvalued.
Biden dropping out for health, hmm, yes I keep forgetting he’s even older than Trump, funny how that is!
ETA: Still, in the year 2020, putting $1 down for a chance to win $100? You can bet Biden marries Ivanka on Elon Musk’s spaceship and I wouldn’t judge you for it!
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Yeah but you can play the markets on PredictIt. You don’t need Pence to actually win to make money. Buy now at 1¢, wait till there’s good news about Pence or bad news about Trump’s health and sell at 2 or 3¢ and you’ve made a profit.
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That’s interesting. It seems to me that that makes their data much less predictive, since ultimately people aren’t betting that X will happen, but only that the likelihood of X on PredictIt will rise.
Well I guess that’s what makes it a market rather than just a betting site (not that stock markets are anything other than glorified casinos).
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I remember much talk in 2016 of betting markets in the UK predicting a Trump win. Now, a perusal of cached articles proves my memory to be faulty.
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