Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2019/08/16/fox-news-poll-shows-trump-losi.html
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If Fox News told me the sun was up, I’d still go out and check.
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If I recall, during the last election he was losing in just about every poll too. His most ardent fans either weren’t polled, or chose not to respond to polls.
ETA: fixed a typo
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A Trump win was within the margin of error of polls taken just before the election. Pre-Comey there were polls showing him just outside the margin of error, but post-Comey his win was always plausible.
His odds were about the same as Cleveland’s were in the 2016 NBA finals.
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Yes, but they always spin that Trump is doing better than he really is. So if they’re saying he’s losing by 10 points, you’ve got to wonder how bad he’s really doing.
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As long as he’s only up against one candidate and they don’t do anything stupid,
And right there is why Fox, disappointed though they are that there has to be any Dem candidate, is hoping it will be Biden.
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Red flag! Stop with the old white groping men BS. Harris FTW.
Edit: I can’t tell the future, but this guy screams of skeletons-in-the-closet. Even though 45 has a practical sarcophagus, Faux News will do a hit job, idiots will vote for Trump again, moderates will sit this one out, and there we have it.
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Oddly, they have a better record than Rasmussen, which has typically had the most slanted polls. And it is true that the 2016 total vote tallies were pretty close to the final polling. It was surprising that the too-close-to- call states broke in Trump’s favor. The pundit class even gave Nate Silver a hard time because he said Trump had a chance to win.
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The only poll I will trust is the one on November 3, 2020
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There’s every chance we should take that one with a grain of salt as well…
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You can’t trust that poll either. After all, Trump lost the 2016 poll by nearly 3 million votes.
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My first thought seeing this was maybe they are trying to fire up the base by suggesting Dear Leader’s glorious reign might be in jeopardy and action must be taken.
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Not this $#!+ again
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I always wonder if polls have an effect on opinion like that. Does a bad poll make people depressed and want to give up, or does it motivate people to fight harder? Does a good poll make people complacent or does it encourage people to get excited to join the party? I dunno!
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Don’t get cocky!
Everyone was surprised when ⊥rump was elected in 2016.
No one should be surprised if he is re-elected in 2020.
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Iowa voter here. Just got a text poll from someone. Basically said Bernie and warren were my first and second choices and I’d be fine with Pete or Kamala. But they asked if I thought Biden could beat trump and I said no. Really he probably could but I’m afraid mostly with Biden is another Hillary Clinton scenario: a lot of people on the left side of the Democratic Party sitting it out. Hard to imagine that when trump is the alternative but I’m a bit scared.
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The polling so far run counter to the ‘electability ‘ baloney narrative. Clearly, any of the top Dem candidates has a chance to beat Trump.
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The thought of Biden being the candidate and winning is marginally less scary to me than Trump getting re-elected and much more depressing.
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Keeping in mind that an 80% chance of him losing is still a 1-in-5 chance of him winning, I fail to see what good reporting on opinion polling is. I mean even if it was a decent way to predict the future (which we’ve seen it isn’t), it tells us nothing whatsoever of substance other than “We called some people on the phone and when we asked them they assured us they’d rather vote for Biden than Trump” which, I mean, who cares? The story-about-the-story then becomes a cross between “Republicans, we’re holding on by a thread! You’ve got to get out & vote or the evil AOC will steal your Medicare” and “Democrats, y’all have this one in the bag, feel free to stay home if you’re too old, too tired, or your name got purged & it is just too much trouble to re-register.”
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I think the settled dust on this is that national polls and most state polls were accurate (she beat him by three points!) but there were extreme lapses in accuracy among specific demos that turned out to be the deciders in the electoral college.
They don’t much like cold callers in the hills east of Pittsburgh.
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