It didn’t happen that way. Hillary got 50,000 fewer votes than Obama did in 2012 nationwide. Trump won the electoral college by 70,000 votes in the three closest states. If you want to look into why Hillary lost then go ahead, but blaming the left is the lazy and wrong option.
No, no, no. There is no “marginally” here. If Trump is re-elected then I only see three possibilities:
- He croaks (which is likely)
- His dementia becomes so obvious that even ( R)s can’t ignore it any more
1 and 2 will mean President Pence which will probably lead to 3.
I hope I’m wrong.
Also remember that Leicester City were 5,000-1 to win the English Premier League in 2015-16. A 0.02% chance of winning is still a chance they might win, and the bookmakers hate losing money.
Translation for the non-sports sorts?
Yeah, just like last time around people were taking polls showing Hillary with a ~75% chance of winning just before the election as if that meant her victory was a sure thing.
If the weather forecast calls for a 1-in-4 chance of tornadoes destroying your town tomorrow then you don’t just go about your business as usual.
I think you misunderstood my point. I’m not blaming the left. If anything I’m sympathizing with people who were not excited by the candidate last time. I feel like Biden will have a lot of people dragging their feet to the polls out of obligation. I remember the first obama election. people were excited. young people were revved up to get out and vote. I’m sure a lot of people across the political spectrum who normally arent even that into politics voted for him. In 2016 I barely saw anyone with hillary signs in their windows or bumper stickers. I’m afraid biden would be closer to that clinton scenerio. He might still win anyway, because jesus, look at the alternative.
I feel like this next election can’t be a squeaking by win. Because as we’ve seen that might mean a loss. It needs to be a landslide. Trump needs to be pummeled.
Came here to say this. Don’t assume we’ll win! That’s how we lose every time. In 2016 T supporters were purposefully masking their support and downplaying his strong base so the other side would get cocky and not turn out in numbers and it worked. This poll could even be part of a strategy.
Not even sure I trust that anymore. And Mitch doesn’t seem too keen on securing anything at all.
Is there a current dem candidate that has people revved up? They all seem pretty milque·toasty to me.
Hah. That should get his thickened blood racing.
“Coming out of the first corner we have Stroke, Heart Attack, and Aneurysm running neck-and-neck. It’s anybody’s race folks! What a day to be alive!”
I can’t wait for him to call Fox News “fake news!” And as always happens if he’s right about something, it will be for the wrong reasons.
I wonder if he will call them “dogs?” If he does we will know they’ve gotten under his skin, like a thumbnail stuck in an orange rind.
The most apt description I saw was “about as likely as losing Russian roulette on one pull”
In general I don’t know, but I expect if a poll predicts the winner is someone you are borderline OK with, but don’t really like it encourages people to either “not bother” or vote for a 3rd party that better suits their political stance, or to write in whomever they thought should have won the primary.
(I think some for of ranked preference voting would fix that, maybe even unranked)
maybe put it this way. which candidate has the least haters. lol.
I wish Bernie was like 15 years younger. He’s the one candidate the i feel has that sort of charisma… like i even know republicans who think he’s charming (even if they wouldn’t vote for him). The people that go to his rallies are pretty enthused.
Welcome to the Fox News Cycle: Fear! Anger! Victory! Repeat.
It’s called “Holding the Dopaminergic Pathways of Ten Million Gullible Americans by the Reins”
This early in the race, this news will make Fox voters vaguely worried and afraid. Now is the time to instill a slow burning fear, and let them sit and mull about this vague anxiety for months.
Don’t worry. Fox New viewers have been trained over the past decades – classically conditioned even. They know the drill.
First comes fear!
Then comes outrage, anger, self-righteous indignation! And instead of focusing on Trump’s failures, the anger will be directed outward: IMMIGRANTS and the LIBERAL DEMOCRATS who coddle them!!!
And finally victory! Trump will step forward into the light! I think he’ll either pose as (a) A MAN WRONGED: you poo-poo’d his WALL but look at this HORRIBLE IMMIGRATION MENACE! or (b) THE HERO WITH THE ANSWERS! Or maybe both.
That’s when the donations and election pledges start pouring in. At the same time, his polling numbers will surge, and depending on whether or not reality complies with the script, Fox News might need to “adjust” those numbers.
Every single day, I keep hoping…
My money is on “Massive stroke while taking a dump”.
would be real curious to see these poll results filtered through the electoral college.
The kids like Bernie.
They had a very small, but statistically meaningful chance of winning and went on to win. They were a team that had not won a championship, behind by three games in a best of seven series, against a team they had lost the championship to the year before, in the arena that favors the other team. I think the analogy is a bit of an overreach because Trump represented the party that reliably gets about half the voters, but it nails the fact that slim odds still represent a real chance.
I really think the enthusiasm gap is way oversold. The simple fact is that the bland on the ground organizing in key blue chunks of swing states, particularly in the rust belt wasn’t of the quality it needed to be. I’m in the blue part of Ohio and come from a family where everyone usually volunteers for a few campaigns each election cycle, maybe not much, but an hour or two of call center stuff. When Bill Clinton ran he was here pretty regularly, visiting diners and generally pretending Cleveland matters. Kerry and Gore made some appearances, but just a few. Obama’s people were calling regularly and knocking on doors. Hell, they had John Legend playing in the back of a truck outside the Board of Elections. Hillary Clinton’s called staff called maybe once per person. Ground game organizing wins elections, arguably even more than policy.