Investment planning for the coming apocalypse šŸ’ø

Thatā€™s a good thought - use Prime day as a bellweather for the rest of the season. But how will you get Prime day information? Web traffic? Why would Amazon divulge anything about it unless positive?

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I just checked, and weirdly Canada is closer for me, too by about 4 or 5 hours (SE).

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If you take the time to apply for a SENTRI card, the return crossing to the US will be exponentially faster and smoother, both by car and foot.
Since things have improved for me, I am happy to give any happy mutants a little assistance if you decide to come to Mexico via San Diego/Tijuana. Apartment hunting can be a slog, because they go fast. Internet searching is definitely not the way to do it at this time.

ETA: As my ā€œhostā€ family is finishing a new apartment at the back of the lot, I plan to move into it and rent it out even while traveling. Iā€™ll be paying less than $200/month, so it will be worth it to keep up to a point that I find a country of permanent residence.

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Iā€™m literally on the threshold of retirement - my time frame is measured in weeks.

Iā€™m continuing dollar-cost averaging right up to the day I start distributions. 45% domestic stocks in ETFā€™s (S&P, Russell, and Fidelityā€™s small-cap in equal measure). 25% international equities. 30% bonds (half Fidelityā€™s corporate ETF, half TIPS). Thatā€™s just the 401(k) - about a third of my portfolio is (mortgage-free) real estate, which allows for a fairly aggressive posture on the rest. Rebalance every six months. Taking a partial buyout on the defined-benefit pension because Iā€™m flirting with the PBGC benefit ceiling otherwise., and thatā€™ll also get plowed into the 401(k). Nothingā€™s certain, though - and they could cut all three legs of the three-legged stool. It wouldnā€™t astonish me if some round of left-ish populists imposed confiscatory taxes on all retirement savings and benefits in a few years when the Millennials become solidly the largest voting bloc. Theyā€™re going to get tired of just waiting for the Boomers to die.

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I must have missed this before. If youā€™re not a heavy drinker, love cats, and can handle the reality of living in economically depressed countries, youā€™d be welcome to my newer apartment. Iā€™m hoping Iā€™ll be able to connect with someone responsible when the pandemic is over who would want to apartment swap if visiting Schengen countries to avoid a lot of hassle from their 90-day visa limits.

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Check, double-check (was planning to look for pet owners), and check/can adjust. Iā€™ve lived in some very depressed neighborhoods in a few cities, would just need to figure out how to navigate and forage in a new place. Lead time could be used to plan, since Iā€™ve vacationed there but never lived there.

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The right column is a solid collection of etfs that are based on the most traditionally profitable stocks, with their mutual fund analogs. Right now, though, thereā€™s not a whole lot to shield you from instability.

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I live in an area thatā€™s full of good food and convenient markets. Food or basic needs are the least of your problems.

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Iā€™ve got a sound machine to drown out the neighbors, traffic, and construction noise, too! :wink: It doesnā€™t work on meowing, though. :smile_cat: Are there banks/ATMs nearby, too? Found this on banking:

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There are 3 ATM places around the shopping center within walking distance about 1/2 mile away, Citi-Banamex having the best ATM rate of around $1.50 to $1.75, and a foreign exchange rate of about 1% when you use a chipped card from the USA. Iā€™ve been able to keep my credit union account this way.

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Again, maybe Iā€™m just over-reacting, but I really think the strongest position right now is cash.

ā€œMy knee-jerk reaction to the Trump news is that Iā€™m pleasantly surprised by how little reaction there has been in stocks. The fact that the market is not down much more, especially given the mediocre jobs report, is a good sign,ā€ said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/02/investing/dow-stock-market-today-trump-covid-jobs/index.html

Iā€™m going to wait & see how this plays out. People who pulled their funds out of the market at the start of the Great Recession in 2008 missed out on the rebound.

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You are right - the rebound doesnā€™t come for free - you gotta be ready to make the jump when itā€™s time. ā€¦and timing the stock market is one of the hardest things to do.

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That might be the difference between a trader and a long-term investor. Early in my career, I worked with one person who was online checking his stocks all day. He was caught up in trying to figure out when to buy and sell. I went in a different direction.

My model for investments is of the mountain climber who is using a yo-yo. Iā€™m not watching the toy (daily fluctuations), Iā€™m watching him. As long as he appears to be ascending during quarterly reviews, fine. If heā€™s getting sluggish and overtaken by other climbers, I might adjust my holdings/his course.

However, if he falls off Iā€™m sure that would make the news so thereā€™s no risk of overlooking a major development. At that point, my actions will depend on whether or not heā€™s likely to get back up. Having savings and assets in case he lands in a crevasse helps if it becomes necessary to follow retirement Plan B.

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Thereā€™s the dilemma - in order to make any plays, one has to have cash on hand. If itā€™s all tied up, then one cannot recover, except by time, from a big fall. But if itā€™s all in cash, then nothing is happening. At some point, buying in and making adjustments has to occur. And people are all over the map on philosophy around when to make those plays on a continuum from day trading to your excellent description of the mountain climber.

One thing is certain: it is a heck of a lot easier to make these decisions in a bull market.

Another thing that is so little talked about is trading options on the derivatives markets. In that environment, by the structure of oneā€™s calls and puts/buying or selling, itā€™s possible to consistently mitigate risk and produce earnings, compared to investing in naked equities. Itā€™s also possible, just like weā€™ve been talking about for naked stocks, to completely lose your shirt and empty out your entire closet of shirts and the socks and underwear drawers too.

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a long time-horizon mixed with diversification doesnā€™t hurt either. 20 years of lead time can make up for quite a few individual flubs.

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Hereā€™s an interesting take on the impact of the pandemic (from before the WH outbreak):

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FWIW, I had a check in call with my investment planners last week. I thought they were joking at first when they suggested shifting a bunch of investments from bonds to gold, but they werenā€™t. I guess itā€™s a reasonable approach during times like this, with the uncertainty around the election and low, low interest rates. They suggested a fund called GLD.
They touted it largely as a relatively safe place to park money, not something to expect a lot of growth from, but a safer bet than traditional bonds. I guess when things fall across the board, gold typically doesnā€™t fall as far, and when things rebound, gold catches right up.

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I just looked at this, and safe is a relative term. Not sure how long you were thinking about parking your money, but the 10-year view made me think twice:

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Iā€™m thinking of it as kind of weathering the storm (knock on wood) then shifting back over to bonds. They said things are bound to get pretty shaky, and having a lot of stuff in bonds might not be as safe as usual.
Itā€™s really a small part of the overall portfolio (which, that terminology makes it sound like a bigger thing than it is, but themā€™s the words) so Iā€™m not too worried.
I havenā€™t looked, but it would be interesting to see that Motley Fool graph overlayed with bonds and or indexed funds over the same time horizon.

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