Myanmar: Ongoing Updates

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25 Jan 2022

Human Rights Watch has done a follow up release to the Chevron/Total announcements. Here’s the action item:

The US and EU in particular are in key positions to impose sanctions since payments in the gas sector – even those handled by non-US and non-EU companies – are typically made in US dollars and involve correspondent US and EU banks. Sanctions by the US and EU can stop payments made in US dollars or Euros even by banks in Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, and other locations, since those banks always ultimately need correspondent US and EU banks – which are subject to US and EU law – to finalize, or “settle,” large dollar or Euro transactions.

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Bertil Lintner has been one of the most detailed Burma chroniclers in the English language. A couple of weeks ago he provided an historic comparison of the events of 1988 vs. 2021 in The Irrawaddy.

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The third Silent Strike is being called for the anniversary of the coup on Feb 1, 2022. Junta is warning people they will be treated as “traitors” for doing that. What ever.

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There’s deep concern about a revamped effort by the regime to shut down VPN’s, which are now criminalized.

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Someone cleverly tracking flights has identified trips by a US sanctioned Iranian airline to the military’s capital stronghold of Naypyidaw. I believe there are so far only guesses as to the nature of these visits but found some very specific information from someone I’ve never heard of and to be fair I haven’t dug for other sources:

Iran deputy commander of Quds force, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh visited Burma and met with Deputy Commander in Chief, Deputy Senior General Soe Win. The meeting lasted for nearly 2 hours. Some Quds force personnel stayed behind in Naypyidaw to train special forces. However, this is not the whole story. The junta was in secret talk with Iran to purchase 3rd of Khordad (Surface to air missile) which was used to shoot down US RQ-4 drone. The idea is to use these missiles to protect possible US drone strikes and more advanced drone strikes from PDF(People Defence Force under the command of National Unity Government). It is highly likely that these missiles were transferred in second flight from Iran. This is in violation of UNSC resolution 2231, paragraph 6b, Annex B. In addition, the junta Min Aung Hlaing has acquired some unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The inside source closed to Naypyidaw said that there are about 3 tons of arms each flight. It is bit strange that why regime is getting arms from Iran while they can get it from Russia and China. However, China is bit reluctant to involve in it and the junta wants some allies in the Islamic world and the junta wants Iran to influence others in Rohingya case. In addition, they need some expert help to fight PDF and they believe that Iran can help them like in Syria.

First to say this out of the gate, I find it extremely unlikely that the US will monkey around in Myanmar’s airspace, drone strikes or anything at all. This would give China an excuse to do things we really don’t want to see done there and could ignite a full proxy war. But it doesn’t mean the junta doesn’t fear that.

Second, the headline is misleading. Don’t expect Hezbollah to play into it at all. The Tatmadaw have purchased a lot of gear (“…rifles, military training, battleships, observation and surveillance UAVs, and a mobile phone hacking system”) and probably new surveillance drones from Israeli firms. The back scratching is mutual and not just monetary: Myanmar is far and away the largest nation to fully recognize Israel and not recognize Palestine.

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NUG is saying victory in 2022 is inevitable. I say, stay tuned.

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26 Jan 2022

Significant warning to all businesses here from the US Government. Worth a read, even just the 2 page summary. In some ways more powerful than just doing sanctions - an explicit warning under a six-agency banner of the executive branch:

Businesses and individuals with potential exposure to, or involvement in operations or supply chains tied to, the military regime that do not conduct appropriate due diligence run the risk of engaging in conduct that may expose them to significant reputational, financial, and legal risks, including violations of U.S. anti-money laundering laws and sanctions.

That may sound like a velvet hammer but in my experience this is very heavy handed. It paints, for example, a much riskier picture for future business there than the guidelines the NUG had laid out in July. Perhaps that one will be revised to convey the real threat now. Chevron’s intent to leave the country also leaves every other operator highly exposed.

Evening update:
Bo Hla Tint, an old hand who was part of the former exile NCGUB government, is now the NUG’s (aspiring) ambassador to ASEAN (if they will have him). Speaking for 30 minutes straight, he presented a very comprehensive picture of the current status inside the country as keynote speaker of a CSIS Indonesia-sponsored webinar just now.

He describes the NUCC, an advisory council formed with the ethnic groups inside of Burma who helped assemble the new Federal Democracy Charter. They are working very hard on solidarity within the multi ethnic society.

Because of how much of the world has felt about support for Burma through the lens of the Rohingya issue, my antenna is always up for what individual NUG ministers have to say about it. So I found this to be significant (timestamp here):

…We are also closely working together with the leadership of the international Rohingya freedom campaign to ensure an inclusive future for Myanmar that does not repeat its past mistake again.

To characterize or even merely hint that what was done as part of the power sharing (NLD/Tatmadaw) government of the past with respect to the Rohingya, and that approach was a mistake, that is significant. It is a good way of putting it without directly criticizing NLD or DASSK but also in a sense owning up to it. That is very different than only blaming the Tatmadaw, only calling for justice against the military, or worse (as some want to recast the world’s perspective) simply blame all of the Rohingya’s misery on some ARSA attacks of 2016. It is true that the events took a massive downward spiral after those ARSA attacks. It is also true that the civil society Rohingya organizations have almost universally condemned and created distance from ARSA. For more on this history, see a lightweight version from BBC (Sept 2017) and/or this deep dive from the US State Dept. (Aug 2018). Of course if you haven’t seen the online Holocaust Memorial Museum exhibit “Burma’s Path to Genocide”, that is much more visceral.

Among additional points in Bo Hla Tint’s presentation, PDF ambushes against the Tatmadaw are so frequent now that the Tatmadaw can no longer rely on ground transport and need helicopters to get to their wounded. NUG has recently claimed a number of Tatmadaw casualties since that D-Day announcement at 2x or 3x the civilian casualty count since the coup (they didn’t make this comparison, I do).

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Well damn. I hadn’t caught this. When Chevron and Total announced they were going to cut and run, the junta tried to distract the world from that news by sentencing to death Ko Jimmy (who I’ve talked about more than once and who they already tried to kill) and… well here’s the story:

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31 Jan 2022
Technically it’s the anniversary of the coup in a few hours.

In recent days and hours, the US, UK and Canada have added new sanctions. I suspect more to come. The Myanmar community in DC have targeted the Norwegian consulate. Derek Chollet who is US State Counselor just met with the NUG. Lots of behind the scenes meetings are going on (I know of SEVERAL) between advocates and elected reps. This will result in statements from the Senate and House and maybe some other things. Still TBD is locking up that MOGE income.

I’m hearing GOP reps may sit on the BURMA Act until the reports described in the Burma related provisions of the NDAA are issued by the State Dept. This sucks because it sets the BURMA Act (>$100M) which has been pushed for since the coup in February 2021, back to after March 2022. NDAA contained no monetary provisions. Nothing where congress is signing off on specific funds has been passed yet after the coup. This is a real shame. State Dept has proactively provided quite a bit of $$ but more is needed.

Revisiting what I wrote six days ago about Iran, I am not sure about what will happen but I know the State Dept is concerned about it. In terms of it being a headscratcher that an Islamic state would cozy up with a non-Islamic regime accused of very recent genocidal acts against an Islamic population… It is worth looking at through the lens of US foreign policy. Iran and the tatmadaw are in a sense two peas in a pod. Iran was sanctioned in October and December.

Likely the coup leaders reached out to Iran and sold them on the idea that if Iran provides equipment to Myanmar, it will be a thorn in the side of the US. Plus there’s no doubt some $$ or trade involved. Additionally I wouldn’t be surprised if there were weaponized UAV’s from Iran to Myanmar in the mix. Israel sold them surveillance UAVs. Helicopters, a primary instrument of terrors, may be very vulnerable to military drones but also to homebrew militarized over the counter drones that could be designed and launched by the Peoples Defense Forces. So the regime is definitely in the market for weaponized unmanned drones. The PDF are likely already on that anti helicopter tech trajectory, as they are rapidly upping their learning curve on improvised weapons in general. I don’t know how easy it is to weaponize those Israeli surveillance drones. Imagine this, Israeli and Iranian drones flying side by side to kill Buddhists, Muslims and Christians because they voted you out.

Afternoon update:

I found a description I’d cut/pasted on this very issue about ongoing drone experiments. I know many BB’ers avoid FB and it has been a bit of a challenge to direct you to other links from a community that almost exclusively expresses itself on FB. So here’s the video.

RESISTANCE FORCES GETTING DEADLY WITH IMPROVISED DRONES
This video shows six strikes carried out by drones; it was taken during operations in Sagaing Region. Over the Christmas and New Year period, two videos were posted by two separate groups, each showing makeshift explosive munitions being carried and dropped by small drones. In the first video, posted by the Karenni Generation Z Army (KGZ), a small team is shown launching a DJI Phantom drone modified with a release mechanism and armed with a small munition. The second video, posted by the Aung San Force-MPDF, shows six strikes, as well as footage from drones observing indirect fire attacks. The KGZ is a resistance group active in Kayah State. The Aung San Force, meanwhile, is a self-organising resistance group. Both formed in the aftermath of the February 2021 coup, which resulted in peaceful protests and a brutal military crackdown.

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1 Feb 2022

Early take:
Silent strike started at 10 a.m. Yangon time.

I had named France as adding new sanctions but they haven’t. The bigger thing would be to get the EU to add sanctions that had previously been lobbied against by Total.

Thanks @FGD135 ! In the past when the phrase “stalemate” started to be bandied around, calls for major compromise that led to today’s condition have been made by outsiders who may have some other interest(s) at stake. So I try to be careful with that one and suggest being watchful for what I’m describing as so called “experts” start to weigh in from other countries.

Later take (1 Feb late morning Pacific time)

Wow a lot happened over night / silent strike daytime anniversary today. Something horrible today I expect you’ll read about so I’ll leave it off.

Early this morning I woke to watch a terrific panel presentation combined in person / zoom of leaders in hiding, deftly presided over by journalist Gwen Robinson at the Thai press club. It is difficult to call out any single presenter but if you don’t have 2 hours… I suggest Thinzar Shunlei Li starting at 1:16, and Anthony Davis of Jane’s. Shunlei starts with the “something horrible.” Now it’s afternoon and I haven’t finished this but it’s still hard to find any reporting on it. He has succumbed.

There was, just yesterday, a tweet of an interview clip of the new UN envoy to Myanmar, Noeleen Heyzer, who has kinda been giving me the creeps with talk of a combined government solution (didn’t we literally just go down this road and find out we were totally wrong to think that would work?). I think frankly she wants to force a solution to win the Nobel Peace Prize. This is also what I warned about above as the thing that comes from people who want to characterize it as a “stalemate.” But this envoy goes much further and actually claims that “the military is in control.”

The whole community has been set off by this. Ethnic groups are weighing in rather forcefully. Petitions are already circulating with two substantial points which I will oversimplify here: 1) A military that is “in control” does not set people on fire. 2) The solution being sought by those doing the civil disobedience and all of the ethnic leadership does not involve “sharing power” with the people who have ordered and perpetrated these acts and are on trial for genocide.

Shunlei talks about it at 1:27, blasting the envoy for three full minutes. Then at 1:33 is a brilliant presentation that solidly puts this to rest from Jane’s Intelligence analyst Tony Davis. “My baseline analysis is Myanmar is ALREADY a failed state. And the SAC is not going to be able to put humpty dumpty back together again.”

Davis also makes a very solid case for NUG and nationalist NLD types to significantly change their tune and cooperate and build trust with the Ethnic Armed Orgs. He’s pointing out, the Bamar are losing power (“the center of the country is imploding”) and the EAO’s are still in full control of their lands. They will only help the Bamar insofar as it helps them and doesn’t lead to them again being at a disadvantage. A solution to get rid of the tatmadaw is going to require much humility and trust building.

Edit: I was going to add pics of the silent strike. These are very important. And again as happened on the first and second ones, the military rolled out their trucks with loudspeakers urging / threatening everyone to go outside and get back to work. That becomes a recruitment call for civil disobedience and in that sense, it worked. Catch the photos in the first DW link from @FGD135 below.

Additionally I had intended to mark the day with a re-link/re-post of the “All She Wants To Coup Is Dance” video. After hearing about what the young man did in Mandalay, it’s just not the time.

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2 Feb 2022
(night before in US)
I forgot to add what a fascinating new sanctions list the US has just rolled out. Check out the press release. Added:

  • The regime’s Attorney General
  • Chair of the Anti-Corruption Commission
  • Chief Justice of the Supreme Court
  • Directorate of Procurement of the Commander-In-Chief of Defense Services (Army)
  • Arms broker Tay Zaw and his two adult sons
  • The operator/owner and company that manages the port in Yangon. They feed $3M/year into Myanma Economic Holdings… this is starting to get close to a MOGE sanction.

Those first three are the architects of all the bogus charges and, I believe, of laws they added after the coup to be able to prosecute anyone opposing them. I think this will grow in importance to the movement. It is Biden saying “Oh, and your courts are BS.” It says to every family member of everyone who’s been locked up since Feb 1, “yeah, fuck these guys. We stand with you.”

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4 Feb 2022
Continued blowout over Noeleen Heyzer’s interview. She’s been beating a slightly clumsy retreat which the people aren’t buying. I don’t either because her language from day one was coding everything she said in that interview. In particular for me, this response to Democratic Voice of Burma rings hollow:

…members of the Security Council reiterated their full support for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) role in facilitating a peaceful solution in the interest of the people of Myanmar and their livelihoods. They reiterated their calls for the swift and full implementation of ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus.

…They also encouraged the complementarity of my work to the work of ASEAN. As I have repeated, this needs to be in line with the will of the people of Myanmar.

I have been amplifying the need for a robust international response grounded on a unified regional effort. From the outset, I have been in close contact with all ASEAN leaders, urging for immediate action and cooperation to prevent further deterioration of the situation in Myanmar and address the desperate needs of Myanmar’s people, particularly the most vulnerable. The UN has committed to working closely with ASEAN in supporting a Myanmar-led process that is inclusive and reflective of the will of the people.

For all of this “will of the people” repetition, not one word about having the NUG represent said people in any role within ASEAN. There is no other body that has arisen to represent the people.

Brilliant analysis by Angshuman Choudhury including:

Dr Heyzer’s proposals… flow from a textbook and rather, orthodox vision of peace – perfected over the Cold War period and later adapted to a deeply neoliberal framework of “resolving” conflicts through multi-stakeholder dialogues. More often than not, this kind of peace-brokering privileges stability over justice and economics over politics.

…the people seem to have decided already – to politically disrobe the Generals and create a new system where the military is just a cog in the wheel and not the axle supporting the wheel. But, the UN doesn’t seem to be listening. Instead, it continues to hum its favourite lullaby of liberal conflict resolution, according to which achieving quick stability and clearing the way for donor interests remain paramount. If that means preserving the existing sources of violence and subjugation within the country, so be it.

Spot on. I just want to point out, the previous UN Rapporteur Tom Andrews did NOT hum this tune. In fact on Tuesday (per Reuters) he “said the junta was functioning like a criminal enterprise, harming its people and stealing their resources.” In response to Heyzer’s original interview here’s the petition I’d mentioned earlier, a joint statement from Myanmar support groups (PDF - 212.2 KB).

There was another 1 year retrospective this morning facilitated by UN ambassadors. PHR at Johns Hopkins presented on “Our Health Workers Are Working in Fear”: After Myanmar’s Military Coup, One Year of Targeted Violence against Health Care. Web version. PDF version.

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Data currently compiled only through January 10, 2022.*

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9 Feb 2022
First, about the death sentences. I was feeling really low about this until someone very familiar with the justice system reminded me that it is very very rare for these to be carried out. The same is true of the unfathomably long sentences handed down. They do it so that when they release people they appear to be much more generous.

RFA examines more villages completely razed the ground by Tatmadaw in Sagaing Region and shows proof with their own satellite analysis. Swipe left/right on the pics halfway down. Sagaing has some geographical importance. A full anti-tatmadaw takeover of Sagaing could cut off highway access to the entire northwest Myanmar. If Sagaing ethnic forces were well coordinated with strongly anti regime CDM in Mandalay they could potentially control the Irrawaddy and the northern half of the country. It’s in the Tatmadaw’s greatest interest to sow discord between groups from Sagaing and those from Mandalay regions.

Okay, I have a real rant ahead and then a fake rant after that which resolves happily.

I have now seen I believe TWO apologies from the Hun Sen administration re Sean Turnell. I was sure I saw one from Prak Sokhonn apologizing for saying “That means he would get back to Hun Sen with positive news.” One now from Hun Sen himself who embarassingly had announced that Turnell had been released and is now backtracking and says he “received the wrong information… I would like to ask for understanding for this unintentional mistake.”

Edit: in it’s full glory

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This really illustrates the problem with ASEAN and Burma’s neighbors. They put blinders on to what they are dealing with. They think that Tatmadaw leaders will bluff and tell the truth in the same places in which all of them commonly would do that, but the Tatmadaw are the opposite. In this case Hun Sen was told clearly by Min Aung Hlaing that he would “consider the case” after it goes through court. Hun Sen took that as an olive branch or a breakthrough coding that it mean imminent release, and it wasn’t. It doesn’t mean a thing. And he was so optimistic about this “promise” that he didn’t even go back to the source when he heard this rumor of Turnell’s release.

This is also why I called out another guy (I contacted him directly and never heard back) - I referenced this on 9 October 2021. Turnell’s wife had posted a longing hope that Turnell would be returning to her. That’s all it was, and this other guy posted as a news or blog story on another platform that it was a sign of a breakthrough with Canberra. I knew what his source was down to the exact post, and also know how she communicates, and he was totally wrong.

What happens is these rumors run in a full circle, and next thing you know Hun Sen hears that Turnell is being released… maybe from that original misinterpretation by his own foreign minister circling back after many days. This pisses me off to no end, because his wife is suffering.

And because I am suffering. I keep referring to a situation close to me but we are not going public with it for this exact reason. We know we will face an avalanche of conjecture, probing questions by unqualified people which do not need to be answered, and unsolicited and useless advice as well as stories of his release or imminent release, none of which can be believed. This creates a fog and more work for the family to try to clarify things directly with limited access to the detainee (the last I saw Turnell’s wife was able to speak to him was around Xmas 2021 - maybe she has since then). Our only good fortune in this is having been around this scene for such a long time, we fully know that would happen and knew to not only keep our own silence but also to head off people sharing this information of the detention status. I can’t imagine the damage to the family if our loved one’s release was falsely announced by the effing chair of ASEAN and then “oops, I guess I had some bad info.”

We’re lucky though. Others can and do have it much worse than our person. We are getting some direct support, and I am getting personal support to address the mental and emotional toll this has been taking. I expect to be spending less time on BB now as I work through some things.

Other news:
MAH is trying to broker ceasefire agreements. These are always tenuous at best but were very effective in consolidating military control leading up to the constitutional referendum in 2008. Maybe most noteworthy was the agreement to “retire” the golden triangle druglord Khun Sa and temporarily defang his Wa State Army. But it is designed to divide and conquer. This time around I think most Burma watchers would agree, success is much less likely since all the Ethnic Armed Organizations, if they agree on nothing else, know that they have an unprecedented opportunity to severely weaken the Tatmadaw. Looking at it most cynically, they could at the very least extract significant concessions. But I don’t know that the Tatamdaw has such a good track record on post-ceasefire fallout.

I’d mentioned how “specialists” and Op Ed writers breaking out the word “stalemate” is a red flag. Putting this to the test I’m about to read a Bangkok Post piece about the different sides now “reaching an impasse.” Like, wasn’t the coup itself an impasse? Let’s see what is said.

I was not in love with the first couple of paragraphs and sure enough the word “stalemate” appears. But the writer Larry Jagan actually goes on to back up his assertion that “there are few realistic options open for third party attempts to resolve” it. This is much better than the “only ASEAN can fix it” rhetoric we were seeing from other experts last Spring, or the insistence from the new envoy Noeleen Heyzer that the military is in control and everyone else will have to come to the table with them. Quite the opposite here. Jagan is well sourced and describes in good detail what’s happening on the ground to oppose the Tatmadaw including something towards an end goal.

The plan is to encircle the capital Nay Pyi Taw, where the country’s military high command and national administration is based, cutting it off from the battalions doing battle in the various ethnic regions, and the key Bamar cities of Mandalay and Yangon. The PDFs are “marching” south from their northern bases to the east and west of the country with Mandalay currently the eastern target.

And really, THIS is what Heyzer has been blind to:

The democratic opposition is on a roll – with recruits flocking to join their militias. There is no incentive to talk, and the democratic opposition is not inclined to talk to the Tatmadaw as they are not seen as part of the solution, but the core of the problem.

It feels nice to have my cynicism turnt for once. I want to come out of my own process more optimistic and better able to boost the spirits of the people there.

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11 Feb 2022
Check out Altsean’s review “A Year of Struggle in Burma.”

In the year since the Burma military attempted to launch a coup, it has critically harmed millions of lives, the national economy, rule of law, natural resources, and governance.

Armed clashes and attacks on civilians rose by 762%. Just in January 2022, there were more of these incidents than during the entire year preceding the attempted coup.

ALTSEAN-Burma has tracked the most important updates during this time in its online thematic Coup Trackers, and summarized these updates by publishing a Coup Watch briefer each month. This special edition of the Coup Watch draws on these tools to provide a one-year overview.

They also have some good thematic trackers with regular updates on each of seven themes:

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12 Feb 2022

Mass releases of prisoners are events saved up, not for justice to prevail but for special holidays like yesterday’s 75th anniversary of Union Day. A key consideration:

It is still unclear whether political activists and prisoners are among those being released.

Sean Turnell’s wife reports he is not among them and, to the best of my knowledge, neither is my person. Political prisoners.

There’s a terrific congressional resolution just passed out of Foreign Affairs (after bipartisan introduction by Eshoo, Meeks, Bera, Levin, Chabot, and Tenney) that covers many of the issues contained in the proposed BURMA Act and is more up to date. H. Res 896 mentions, for example, the need to cut off foreign aircraft fuel to the junta which is using it for air strikes.

As a resolution, it is non binding. Yet, it is calling for action and is a good yardstick to convey the sentiment of congress. Unfortunately it doesn’t call for anything with respect to the National Unity Government.

Elsewhere: There is very deep concern over this Telenor sale.

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14 Feb 2022
Needing to steer clear of deep dives but I did leave all those links above at the start of the year, so if you spot anything mysterious and want clarification I’d check those and you can always IM me here.

There’s an excellent article in the New Yorker about this new landscape for US policy in which the lines are becoming blurred between “hostages” and “detainees” held by rulers whose methods for acquiring power we don’t want to encourage and who may seek to leverage those being held to obtain an appearance of legitimacy etc.

Back to Noeleen Heyzer the UN Special Envoy. I had previously mentioned the joint statement from groups concerned about her assertion that the military is in control etc., which had been circulated for sign ons. They got around 300 groups endorsing that. Now Heyzer is planning to meet - wisely I’d say, not with all 300. But I expect it will be a diverse group with at least 15 reps from inside the country. I’m hopeful there will be video, but at the minimum I should be able to post some notes of it here, presuming the same folks who let me know about it will be up for sharing.

A real struggle is pending I think, between not wanting to give anything over to legitimize the military and what I think is -fact- that for this to reach a conclusion, someone in the military is going to have to do something. So military, or military personnel, will be involved in any real solution. I’d put a mass defection of entire battalions in that category. One major potential problem is that at any sign of the military bending, the people on the ground will not trust it. Historically speaking, they definitely shouldn’t. But at the same time, other so called “stakeholders” like ASEAN, wanting to encourage more of it and to get back into business with Burma, will jump in and try to bang out a dangerous compromise. This is exactly what Heyzer seems to be angling for.

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17 Feb 2022
There was a foreign affairs asia subcommittee hearing this morning, a year in review. Some info well updated. Disappointed to have seen the same rant from Congressman Brad Sherman that he’d done months ago, followed by his Q&A being answered with a very inaccurate take on NUG progress on Rohingya. Again. Groundhog Day.

It is so frustrating to watch this as I have personally put about a hundred hours into trying to get that misunderstanding off the table. In short, yes the NUG has indeed pledged to trash the 1982 citizenship law (the main thing cited in justifying harassment and oppression of the Rohingya - and the thing Rohingya leaders have told me was in their top 3 concerns). That was not the answer given.

In terms of pushing our gov’t from out here on the streets, everything in the US is at a lull. Clear indications from both houses, they don’t want to talk about Burma until they get a report directly from the State dept as mandated in the NDAA. My thought to everyone: take a fricking break. It’s been a full year of constant meetings, protests vigils and calling reps. Do a week long USA Silent Strike. And celebrate the momentum. There is not one person arguing that the coup regime has successfully put down the uprising against it. In the past, these things got settled in a matter of weeks.

Supporting that notion, on this next item… to review on this, I had cautioned not long ago about carefully observing anyone uttering the words “stalemate” for the inevitable power sharing pitch that would follow.

Enter the brilliant Georgetown distinguished professor emeritus David I. Steinberg with a different another word from the game of chess:

English has no single word in chess or in life to describe a certain unfortunate situation, so we turn to German. Zugzwang in chess is the point at which one side must make a move, but whatever that move may be, it will be disastrous for its position and side, and it will ultimately fail. This is different from a stalemate, where nothing happens, and no one is forced to proceed.

… Even if the military could quell overt rebellions and civil disobedience and command an end to much of the immediate violence against it, however unlikely, it is in zugzwang. In a sense, the military’s coup created the conditions for its own ultimate defeat and ignominy.

Mic drop?

Silent strike?

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18 Feb 2022
I couldn’t stomach that hearing but watched a little more today, and thankfully Sherman was the odd standout. Chairman Bera was really well informed, had visited the camps along the Thai Burma border and talked to the NGO’s in October, and was not just pontificating.

Not so thankfully? After the exchange I mentioned above, Sherman again called for Bangladesh to annex Arakan State from Burma. Here’s what happened last time he did that:

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21 Feb 2022
Good news of the day
EU sanctions Myanmar Oil & Gas Enterprise.
US has still not done so. I understand there’s some concern about loss of power in Yangon (partially powered by the Yadana field, as I understand it) and humanitarian impacts that I haven’t really dug into. As to the first point, this has been thoroughly discussed with surveys of residents a vast majority of whom said they would sacrifice this if it would deprive the coup regime of $$. As to the second… Months ago as they were starting to feel the pressure, Total had purported to be concerned about the workers. Journalist Nay Paing investigated that directly, and the workers told him they didn’t mind so much. Chevron may have been “selling” this humanitarian concern on the hill as they had hired lobbyists to stop all this, and perhaps that has seeped in. But perhaps this is really not Chevron’s top concern all, since they are leaving.

Not So Good News Of The Day
Special Advisory Council - Myanmar (“SAC-M,” an anti-coup org) is objecting to a decision by the International Court of Justice allowing the coup regime to take up Myanmar’s defense against The Gambia’s complaint made on behalf of the Rohingya.

The ICJ is hosting public hearings from today in the case brought against Myanmar by The Gambia for alleged breaches of the Genocide Convention. The hearings are taking place with the illegal military junta representing Myanmar before the Court, despite the junta having no legal or democratic legitimacy, and no claim to effective control over the people or territory of Myanmar. No other United Nations (UN) body has accepted the junta as representing Myanmar.

“It is outrageous for the ICJ to proceed with these hearings on the basis of junta representation. The junta is not the government of Myanmar, it does not represent the State of Myanmar, and it is dangerous for the Court to allow it to present itself as such,” said Chris Sidoti of SAC-M. “The junta leaders orchestrated the genocidal atrocities against the Rohingya – the subject of this case – and are the cause of the current violence and suffering in the country. They are trying to entrench themselves as leaders of Myanmar, including by claiming international recognition. If they succeed, the chances of the Rohingya and all peoples of Myanmar achieving justice where it matters – on the ground in Myanmar – will be severely diminished.”

Myanmar Advocates’ Meeting with Special Envoy
The leader of the organization that compelled the meeting with Noeleen Heyzer made three key points in today’s conversation:

  1. Power Sharing between the military and civil society obviously does not work.
  2. Seeking “commonalities” between the military and the NUG/PDF/CDM is an exercise in futility because the Tatmadaw is (my words here) a cult.
  3. The statement that “the military is in control at this particular time” is misleading (in their words, a “misinterpretation based on misreading of on the ground realities.”)

Highlights from point #2 above - emphasis added (writer is Burmese BTW):

Many Myanmar political actors also learned from their past power-sharing experiences that there are no “commonalities” with this military in Myanmar context. Not anymore.

People are not going back to status quo before February 2021. They are in revolution to topple the military once and for all, while setting out a political transformation process without the military in it. Within Tatmadaw, they have the doctrine teaching soldiers to hate people with Muslim faith, to hate DASSK and NLD, to hate democracy activists and student activists as enemy of the state. So, this is why our people are doing ideology revolution as they realized the Tatmadaw built a state within the state. This is why thousands of soldiers, military personnel and police are defecting – not deserting. They are revolting against the Tatmadaw ideology. So, if anyone wants to see Myanmar achieve peace, they must support Myanmar people dismantle this military.

It is extremely crucial for the UN to understand that the current political crisis is not between NLD and the junta or between NUG and the junta, but it is the junta staging a war against the nation and committing violence and atrocities against the people. There are full of evidence of their violations of international HR and humanitarian law. They created this multidimensional crisis and thus they cannot partner to the solution.

We would like to request you to bring this message with you to New York to prevent another mistake by international policy makers risking our country’s people’s lives and future of young generations.

We’ll stay tuned to see what Dr. Heyzer does with this (if anything).

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25 Feb 2022
Seems like there’s increasing interaction between State Dept and Myanmar advocates. There is a big push on State from them because a report from state to congress mandated under the NDAA may influence future legislation and how the US government views the National Unity Govt etc.

A little bit on Ukraine/Myanmar sales here.

Maybe they should have kept this stuff in Ukraine?

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It was built to order (including some local assembly in Myanmar), not transferred from Ukrainian military stocks.

Meanwhile the NUG expresses solidarity with the Ukrainian people and the junta expresses solidarity with Putin.

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Yeah, in the J4J report they are citing relatively new purchases. But I recall these deals going way way back when to the best of my recollection, they were sourcing from leftover/“surplus.”

Agree with your central point. Russia is much much worse for Myanmar and Ukraine, and the people should empathize with the other people.

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27 Feb 2022

This, and Elon Musk with the satellite phone system now online for Ukraine. We’d had some chatter way back when about deploying this for Burma but last I heard there was some permission issue with the US. Also the units were not in mass production yet, so that could have been the real reason. So I don’t know where that is and maybe should pick up the trail. Please reply or IM me here if you have an inroads to Starlink.

Late edit: Fenster, Richardson & SPEHA on 60 Minutes about the extra-governmental and creative diplomacy that can come into play to get people freed. The story clears up some stuff I was trying to interpret before about Danny too, and goes over the organizational set up I referenced back in November (in-thread link). SPEHA Roger Carstens seems like a good guy.

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