Very much so! There’s an old joke that if three Burmese enter a room, they will exit the room with four new organizations.
Lintner also does spend a lot too much time historian-splaining organizations and rifts. Any time you do so, you will miss naming a hundred others. It’s unnecessary to go over all that to bring us to the current moment.
Splitters!
11 July 2023
[Formerly] Pro-Military Ethnic Army Switches Sides
Summary Executions of Political Prisoners
There are reports of dozens of murders of political prisoners this summer. When acknowledged, the regime line is “they were trying to escape.”
NUG has documented a dozen executions each at Dai Oo and Monywa prisons on 27 June 2023 and they (I presume their source being the highly reputable AAPPB) are still investigating events at Taung Ngu Prison.
Separately, unconfirmed in this report from RFA, a sympathetic chief warden in Bago was allegedly tortured to death in interrogation.
Congressman Sherman at it again
This will die in committee:
In short, nothing for Myanmar other than humanitarian aid until POTUS can guarantee that a “Government of Burma” has worked everything out with every ethnic group and assured a safe repatriation of all Rohingya refugees.
For one, there is no deal on the horizon between the military and everyone who opposes the coup. Sherman continues to paint them with the same brush (believe it or not, he is still not distinguishing between the MAH-SAC and the NUG). Secondly, just using the phrase “government of Burma” presents a technical impossibility: all political interests on all sides, and all citizens of the country, now call it Myanmar. Finally, note the adder “or [funds] otherwise made available” - implying no budget to be appropriated for anything there… So, we shut down the US embassy and the Burma Desk, which are not solely dedicated to humanitarian assistance? Good luck with all that.
Reminder: It’s Not A “Civil War”
A good op ed read from NUG minister Dr. Zai Wai Soe conveying his impressions especially on the new rising mischaracterization of the conflict as a “civil war.”
12 July 23
Possibly some progressives met with Sherman and he took the ball and ran (the other way) with it.
“In relation to humanitarian aid provision, the representatives urged ASEAN not to partner with or channel humanitarian assistance through the Myanmar military junta, the root cause of Myanmar’s crisis, because it has consistently weaponized and blocked aid from reaching people who are in direst need. They reiterated the urgent need for ASEAN to commit to partnering with the NUG, the NUCC and the EROs, and to provide support directly to local civil society organizations which have already been effectively providing humanitarian aid to communities in acute needs, including through cross-border channels.”
It would be awesome to see Ukraine retaliate by giving these back to the Myanmar PDF’s.
The Ukrainians can’t afford to give away captured ammunition. Anything they find will be returned to sender (i.e. fired at the Russians), as they like to say.
I did get this but, a -couple- of them maybe. PDFs have zero international support.
8 8 23
August 8th is a big date in the history of the movement to overthrow military rule.
It had kinda blown my mind that all of this fighting unfolded at a tea shop, whereas nearly all troubles for westerners originate in bars & pubs or, at least, someone imbibing in a non-tea beverage.
The former prisoner, who is much beloved as a brother among the Gen 88 leaders, is doing much better. He has started the process of dental reconstruction. He is taking a brief vacation with friends after imbibing in a nice single barrel scotch - the first time he could since returning in November. I’ve learned of a “victims fund” for things like the dental reconstruction. The lovely person who gifted said scotch has volunteered to dig into it for him.
9 Aug 2023
The UN’s Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar has issued its annual report. (Announcement and Full Report). I have talked with them at length in an informal capacity. They are very careful with sourcing as well as investigative discipline. They are also very tuned in.
Press Release: War crimes by Myanmar military are more frequent and brazen – Myanmar Mechanism Annual Report
Geneva, 8 August 2023 – There is strong evidence that the Myanmar military and its affiliate militias are committing increasingly frequent and brazen war crimes, according to information collected and analysed by the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (Mechanism) and outlined in its Annual Report released today.
These war crimes include indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks on civilians from aerial bombing, such as the military airstrike in Sagaing in April 2023 that reportedly killed more than 155 people. There has also been an increase in the mass executions of civilians and detained combatants, and the large-scale and intentional burning of civilian homes and buildings, resulting in the destruction of entire villages in some cases.
“Every loss of life in Myanmar is tragic, but the devastation caused to whole communities through aerial bombardments and village burnings is particularly shocking,” said Nicholas Koumjian, Head of the Mechanism. “Our evidence points to a dramatic increase in war crimes and crimes against humanity in the country, with widespread and systematic attacks against civilians, and we are building case files that can be used by courts to hold individual perpetrators responsible.”
The Myanmar military has justified aerial bombings, including on schools and monasteries, as attacks against military targets. However, the Mechanism’s evidence indicates that the military should have known, or did know, that large numbers of civilians were present in or around alleged military targets at the time of some of these attacks.
The Mechanism’s report explains that under international law, military commanders have a duty to prevent and punish war crimes committed by those under their command and failing to take reasonable measures to prevent and punish these crimes may make the commanders criminally responsible. The Mechanism notes that “repeatedly ignoring such crimes may indicate that the higher authorities intended the commission of these crimes.”
I can’t say this was related, timingwise, as it’s a long time tradition: On Aug 1, the regime laughably (and predictably) granted clemency on a few years of the sentences doled out to DASSK and President Win Myint. Under this generous offering, DASSK (now 78) will be free to leave house arrest at the age of 105. Win Myint at 79 - some time around 2030.
Other releases per Democratic Voice of Burma:
22 members of Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO), 72 individuals accused of belonging to “unlawful associations,” and 125 foreign nationals. The prisoner amnesty was granted to mark the Full Moon of Waso, or the start of Buddhist Lent, according to regime media. Some prisoners on death row had their sentences commuted to life imprisonment.
I may have written about this holiday deal in the past. Whenever one digs into it, one finds out the amnesty is solely for the same old criminals and doesn’t include any of the political prisoners. It is, effectively, also clearing out the jails for more political roundups.
As you’ll see below, AAPPB shows nearly 20,000 still behind bars who have been taken since the coup for what they track as being for political reasons. The recent releases were announced August 1, so I believe there has been time to assess, but maybe we’ll see a slight dip on these charts in the coming days. I wouldn’t bet on it.
22 Aug 2023
Unsurprisingly, the coup regime of Myanmar has endorsed the coup regime in Niger.
Inflation is getting worse - about 5x the kyats/$ vs. pre-coup exchange rates. Cal State Econ professor Min Min Thaw explains.
China has invested over $23B in various infrastructure projects. And here’s where the central bank’s money is:
Other news:
25 Aug 2023
Rohingya Genocide Remembrance Day.
"…Today, more than 1 million Rohingya refugees continue to live in the largest refugee settlement in the world in Bangladesh, facing aid cuts and ongoing restrictions on their freedom of movement and access to education and livelihood opportunities. They also face rising insecurity at the hands of criminal and extremist groups in the camps. Another 600,000 Rohingya remain at risk inside Myanmar, under the same military leaders responsible for genocide. Tens of thousands of other Rohingya have sought safety and a better life in surrounding countries, including India, Indonesia, and Malaysia, but too often face the risks of arbitrary or indefinite detention or forced return to the genocidal authorities from which they fled.
"On this sixth day of remembrance, Refugees International calls upon the United States and other countries of influence to sustain support for humanitarian and accountability efforts for Rohingya. We further urge an increase in resettlement of Rohingya to the United States and other third countries. And we call upon other countries of refuge to increase the education and livelihood opportunities that will enable the Rohingya community to thrive. Finally, we urge global action to pressure Myanmar’s military junta, through such actions as further coordinated sanctions and arms embargoes, to create the conditions conducive for the safe, voluntary, dignified, and sustainable return of Rohingya to their homeland.”
28 Aug 2023
This is big and took wayyyy too long. OFAC unambiguously sanctioning jet fuel as of Aug 23.
Bill Richardson was a big part of my life since this thread began. We spoke for just 20 minutes, but he gave me over to his team and they were a godsend with advice first on Rohingya and then on the wrongful detention of Kyaw Htay Oo. They had not officially saved him but their work in approaches and dealing with the regime in impossible scenarios (what Richardson Diplomacy Center Principal Mickey Bergman may have himself coined as “fringe diplomacy”) left an enduring mark which I believe made those other prisoner releases possible. Well, I done said enough. One of the detainees who was handed directly to him, journalist Danny Fenster, has resumed his work at Frontier Myanmar in which he presents a terrific toast to the late diplomat:
I’d mentioned in June about stepping away after too much exposure to conspiracy theorists and dis-uniting types. I have only just become alerted to a horrible event: the brother of NUG Rohingya advisor Aung Kyaw Moe was assassinated in Yangon (Irrawaddy).
Myanmar Beer Stages A Comeback Coup
One of the early successes I wrote about by which Myanmar citizens learned to deprive the junta of income was their extraordinarily effective boycott of Myanmar Beer and the pressure the beer boycotts put on foreign brewery investors.
Now, in what reads like a shitty mob film script, the junta is forcing owners of stores that had stopped carrying it to not only sell Myanmar Beer, but to feature it in large store displays. This, as I had said, had been the norm before the coup, when you might see 100 Myanmar Beer vinyl banners in the space of a single block.
The threats are being made from the tiniest mom & pop shops up to the major supermarket chains.
“The City Express in my street is now back selling Myanmar Beer. It is a challenge from the junta against us, so people also have to show our strength by boycotting stores that are back selling Myanmar Beer,” said a 29-year-old resident in Botahtaung Township.
This obviously puts stores in a conundrum. It’s not the only one, and this kind of thing will be happening more often, more intensely, and across other sectors.
Sean Turnell’s book is coming soon. Posted to FB:
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