Myanmar: Ongoing Updates

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Edit: Reading the thing, this stands out:

Bangladesh’s support — both tacit and overt — for Rohingya armed actors has facilitated the rise of Rohingya militant groups at the expense of a more moderate, non-violent and legitimate Rohingya leadership. Moreover, policy restrictions on Rohingyas’ ability to pursue education and earn livelihoods have contributed to their growing desperation and a marked decline in donor support, which could potentially push the Rohingya into the arms of criminal and militant groups, not out of affinity but out of necessity. These policies also leave the Rohingya poorer and worse equipped to return to Myanmar in the future: a discourse dominated by Rohingya militancy will make repatriation unattractive to the current and future powers-that-be in Rakhine and complicate reconciliation with the Rakhine community, a critical element in any sustainable return process.

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14 December 2023
Well damn.

My guess is the “interrogation camp” is the same where Kyaw Htay Oo and others have been held and tortured before being turned over to the civilian prison & justice system.

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The Irrawaddy:

Coup Opponent Continues as Myanmar’s Ambassador to the United Nations

Myanmar Stands on Humanitarian ‘Precipice’, UN Warns

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How online scam warlords have made China start to lose patience with Myanmar’s junta

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/china/myanmar-conflict-china-scam-centers-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html

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The CNN piece (@vermes82) on China and the scam warlords is excellent.

Committee chair Jane Mugafalu Kabui Waetara proposed postponing consideration of the credentials for the representatives of Myanmar and Afghanistan and her proposal was adopted without a vote.

This suggests it was a done deal; whereas a year ago we were all thinking he might not be able to hold on, because China had been cozying up to the junta and could easily block his re-appointment. It seems China’s happy to play both/all sides with their backing of Operation 1027.

A couple of pulls from older stories in recent weeks:

Civilian Government Takes Custody Over 40 Billion in kyats
seized during PDF military ops. That’s only US $21M, but it’s the kind of thing that could help tilt international favor toward NUG recognition, especially if this happens in other regions (this was all from northern/central Sagaing which are more squarely “PDF”/NUG loyal militias).

It seems the scam centers being such a massive operation were also fueling the local economy. Tens of thousands fled, a combination of real refugees of the Kokang ethnicities who have pled with Chinese border guards not to shoot them (they did shoot tear gas), and workers who’d gone there (Laukkai Township) from areas throughout Myanmar to work in construction and other trades.

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NUG’s Ministry of Planning, Finance and Investment and the ICB launched the Spring Development Bank in July run entirely with crypto and blockchain in a bid to fund the revolution.

What could possibly go wrong?

/s

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Spot on. A Burmese American has been bugging me about this since the idea’s inception which goes back a ways. It is similar to them selling real estate on land controlled by the regime.

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20 Dec 2023
Here’s a weird one. A contractor to the State Dept. slapped together the dept’s annual terrorism report (or an index that may replace it this year?) and in the Country Reports on Terrorism 2022 has decided that Burma’s PDF, really counter-coup forces attacking military convoys on their way to do military shit to innocent people are themselves “terrorists.” The Burma section of this report admits that up to 58% of the attacks they are calling terrorism were PDF/EAO’s against the coup leadership’s military.

This is so new, that Burma isn’t even indexed on that linked page. They blew it. Here’s what the prior report said:

Burma and the People’s Republic of China used counterterrorism as a pretext to crack down on opposition movements and to repress members of religious and ethnic minorities, respectively.

That’s right. This is why they had an American wrongful detainee grabbed while still on a phone call from the UN Ambassador and tortured.

Here’s the Irrawaddy’s write up. Excerpt:

Dr. Zachary Abuza, professor at the National War College in Washington, DC, told The Irrawaddy that the DSG report was “appallingly bad”, adding that it was devoid of any context or expertise and displayed nothing but ignorance about Myanmar.

“It has put the US government in an awkward position, and more dangerously, been used as propaganda and succor for a brutal military regime,” he said, referring to the junta’s use of the report to attack the groups.

Calling the DSG “utter charlatans” and “a for-profit consulting firm”, Abuza said they hire inexperienced people to do the coding and are automatically predisposed to consider any sub-state actor a “terrorist.”

Yeah. What I see is how things got done in the State Dept. after 9/11… the more terrorism there is out in the world, the brighter this contractor’s future business prospects. I hope the contract gets canceled.

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I’d love to say China has “switched sides,” but it’s more nuanced.

On November 12, the Chinese government issued an arrest warrant for Ming Xuechang, the Myanmar army border guard force (BGF) leader responsible for a massacre of Chinese nationals in Kokang perpetrated on October 20, and three of his relatives involved in the operation of their scam compound. In an unprecedented move, the Myanmar army immediately deployed a large troop contingent to hunt down Ming Xuechang and, according to the MNDAA’s account, to execute him; his three relatives were handed over to Chinese authorities within four days. Chinese pressure had successfully compelled Min Aung Hlaing to begin dismantling the BGF that he had created himself when he led Myanmar army troops to capture Kokang in 2009, thus destroying his own legacy in Kokang.
–
A Delicate US Policy On Myanmar – OpEd – Eurasia Review

Still, there’s not a lot of good news here for Min Aung Hlaing.

Soldiers Surrender, Bases Fall and a Powerful Army No Longer Seems Invincible - WSJ

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22 December
I hounded some people whose fault it wasn’t re the terrible terrorism report and my sense from the response is that they are all on top of it and this shouldn’t happen again. This might be why Burma was not listed on the web index and the only way to get to it is to download the whole .pdf.

Mike Haack writes a solid if lengthy piece on OFAC finally sanctioning MOGE. Mike is really good at lobbying and has trained people to hit things in DC with a very broad brush. But he’s also capable of great detail and nuance, as he sifts through this new sanction and its historic contest:

Also worth a read, Mike’s October 2023 op ed on status of the BURMA Act:

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The Irrawaddy:
Drone And Rocket Attacks on Junta Targets in Mandalay Unnerve Myanmar Junta

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#Myanmar (#Burma) :myanmar:: National Democratic Alliance Army (#MNDAA) captured a military base full of weapons/ammo in Laukkaing in #Kokang, #Shan State:

MA-12 LMGs, MA-1 and MA-3 Mk2 rifles, mortar bombs, 84mm projectiles, M433 grenades and many more seen.

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Video here:

https://nitter.net/war_noir/status/1743487235549274224

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Imagine all of those in the (trained) hands of former nonviolent CDM participants in Yangon or Monywa.

These appear to be specific nomenclature in Myanmar.

Looking at these, I just remembered a sketchy moment from 2018 with my grand nephew.

It was too quick for me to do much but snap a couple of pictures - in hindsight, I may have been the cause of it since I was the one with the camera. I’ll understand if your gut response is “why didn’t you say anything?” but this was a moment to keep a cool head. I did convey just enough to stop him from tilting the barrel in anyone’s direction (after staring down it for a split second). I feared that if I approached him to show/tell him how to carry it, this could have turned into a very bad day. The soldiers, as you can see, didn’t even bother to stand up. They were kinda red-eyed and the family later said they were on drugs. Let’s just call it my crappy James Bond moment. I was shaken and could not stir.

The boy is now safe in another country. I’ve done a decapitating blur anyway (sorry!). He was grinning from ear to ear. I am so glad this isn’t what he’s carrying now. There’s another nephew there who probably is - in that case I also hope he’s playing a different role. He’s sharp.

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I didn’t go back and compare these to learn of their makes and model but they look different don’t they? It -looks- like the senior guy got the better weapon but I have no idea.

The blue scarves signify guards vs red scarves worn by troops in active combat roles. I sincerely hope these guns were more for “show” and not loaded.

There was a foreign activist who had stood in protest near DASSK’s home in the 1990s. He was let be, but once he was seated on his commercial flight to leave, some regime representatives (probably at behest of MI) came onboard to leave him a note with the whole “we know who you are and where you live,” further indicting the reason he wasn’t killed was that he “was not worth the price of the bullet.” Which, for that regime at that time, was kinda true.

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And yes, pajamas were in style for gen z family there who wore them 24/7.

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The MA-12 mark 2 is a light machine gun based on the Heckler & Koch HK33.

The boy is holding Kalashnikov rifles of some kind.

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13 Jan 2024

Aftermath of Liberation of Kokang

Irrawaddy’s rundown (links in bold):

Jan 12 ceasefire in northern Shan State
China sponsored talks lead to a 3 point plan between coup regime and brotherhood alliance (armies of Ta’ang, Arakan and MNDAA which had a 20 yr ceasefire). Talks have been ongoing for more than a month.

13 Jan: One. Day. Later…

Myanmar’s junta has already broken Thursday’s ceasefire in northern Shan State with continuing airstrikes, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) said.

…Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told the media on Friday that a ceasefire and peace talks serve the interests of all parties and boost peace along the border.

“China stands ready to continue to provide support and assistance to the best of our capability and play a constructive role,” she said.

However, 19 artillery strikes were reported in three northern Shan State townships and neighboring Mogoke Township in Mandalay Region on Friday, the TNLA said.

This is just so typical and why anyone who’s watched Burma even from a distance has mocked the assertions of the ASEAN 5 Point Planners and the UN envoy. ASEAN sent its new envoy, veteran Laotian diplomat Alounkeo Kittikhoun, on his first mission there on Wednesday Jan 10th.

Meanwhile on 7 Jan near a NUG-controlled area of the Indian border, fighter jets bomb a church, school and ten houses, killing 17.

The junta blocked access to the hospital even while the regime denied responsibility and called it “fake news.”

Um. Yeah.

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MAH meeting with chief of Royal Thai Armed Forces (12 Jan)

Myanmar’s junta has removed its chief of Eastern Command along with a Light Infantry Division commander following military defeats in Karenni (Kayah) State, according to sources.

Jan 12: Junta cans military responsible for KoKang loss.

Eastern Command chief Major-General Hla Moe has been transferred to a reserve force and replaced by Major-General Zaw Min Latt, commandant of the National Defense College. Hla Moe is from the Defense Services Academy 37th intake.

… The alliance’s Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) captured the northern Shan capital of Laukkai on Jan. 5 after six junta brigadier generals surrendered.

They surrendered without handing themselves over? This put them in the hands of someone who will treat them worse than the enemy.

The six generals, who include Laukkai Regional Operations Command chief Brig-Gen Moe Kyaw Thu and junta-appointed Kokang administration chief Brig-Gen Tun Tun Myint, have been detained by the junta in Naypyitaw and are likely to face punishment under martial law, a military source familiar with the matter told The Irrawaddy.

Next up…

13 Jan - MAH’s boosters are turning on him and calling for his resignation

And like in a strategy war game, the disruption cards are now floating to the top of the deck.

They cite what they describe as his incompetence, selfishness and lack of backbone, accusing him of guiding a military once considered invincible into a state of inconsolable shame and desperation.

After high-profile regime cheerleader Maung Maung switched his tune on Saturday, others followed suit. “Three years is enough for U Min Aung Hlaing,” Maung Maung announced on his YouTube channel.

“U Ming Aung Hlaing was unable to demonstrate any capabilities over the past three year, causing the country [to fall] into historic shame and recession. He is incompetent in every sector, including politics and economics … He should resign from his position [to show] accountably,” he explained.

… Many cite the debacle in Laukkai, the capital of Kokang, where besides losing its biggest command center to date, thousands of weapons, ammunition and armed vehicles were handed over to the resistance.

Junta troops did not even try to fight back.

“We are ashamed we have to use the word ‘surrender.’ We are inconsolable by the surrender of more than 2,000 troops and over 1,000 of their family members” regime booster Kyaw Myo Min announced on his Telegram channel NP News Talk Show.

Ooooh. Over a thousand you say? The thousands they’ve been murdering and millions displaced would issue this guy a “go F yourself.”

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Myanmar’s army is losing - and facing fire from a militant monk

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This looks political on the surface but is more of a domestic issue between siblings. The famed University Avenue property of DASSK’s many long house arrests belonged to their parents. Her brother had long since moved to California. There are strong feelings in the community about his stances and his perceived silence, with much of the finger-pointing aimed at his spouse. Anyway…

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It looks as if Myanmar now has a Russian-style controlled opposition. @gracchus

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