Myanmar: Ongoing Updates

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15 April 2024

I’ve moved. My PC crashed, nice opportunity to upgrade but as a result getting taxes done was a bit of a nail biter. Nice to see all these contributions.

Much going on militarily with the PDFs. Obviously the biggest being a direct mass drone attack on Naypyitaw as @GagHalfrunt shared two weeks ago. Add to this the big operation in the northeast of Shan State a few months ago and more recently the tatmadaw being routed out ofmajor centers in the west, the time is ripe for the KNU to be making moves from the Karen State region bordering Thailand.

Myawaddy, a key gateway to Thailand and straddling the highway to Mae Sot, may fall soon:

Myanmar rebels fighting the junta say they have seized the last remaining military base in a key border town, dealing the latest significant blow to the country’s military rulers as they struggle to cling to power.

About 200 soldiers abandoned their base in the southeastern town of Myawaddy and have been pushed to the No 2. Friendship Bridge linking Myanmar to Thailand following an attack Wednesday night by Karen resistance fighters, a spokesperson for the Karen National Union told CNN Thursday.

“Officially we (are in) control of the town Myawaddy since last night,” KNU spokesperson Saw Taw Nee said. The loss of the major trading point with Thailand was “a big issue for the military,” he added.

CNN cannot independently confirm the KNU’s claim. The spokesperson clarified that the rebels do not yet control the border bridge, saying the soldiers are trying to get safe passage into Thailand.

White Messiahs - Meh
Bertil Lintner tears into overpaid mostly-white culturally clueless peacemakers.

Middle Class Disappearing
Within Myanmar, according to the UN, poverty is reverting back to pre-DASSK release levels. The democracy experiment had proven that when things are no longer in the grip of the military cult, the economy recovered very rapidly. Everything that has transpired economically since the coup may have confirmed how the reverse also becomes true.

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16 April 2024

@vermes82 shared iHeart interview of Aung Kyaw Moe (former advisor, now deputy minister for human rights @ NUG) reminded me what a delightful person AKM is. He has a compassionate, broad view while also advocating strongly for a corrected version of his peoples historic claim as rightful citizens. NUG and Myanmar need more people like AKM.

Another Rohingya leader continues to reach out and share stories ;as well as many links of Rohingya in exile observing the recent Ramadan. He ate well at the conclusion last week!

The regime, meanwhile, attempted to celebrate the annual Water Festival. It looks like those who targeted MAH a couple of weeks ago are still circling.

Missile attacks on two universities in a holiday town in Myanmar killed three and injured eight, residents told Radio Free Asia on Monday.

During coup leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing’s Thingyan – or water festival – visit to Mandalay division’s Pyin Oo Lwin city on Sunday, an unknown group fired more than 15 missiles at two military universities. The blasts, which hit the Defense Services Academy and Defense Services Technology Academy, also damaged a department of a nearby hospital and Aung Myay Zaya monastery.

The missiles injured five civilians when they landed on Pyin Oo Lwin Hospital’s orthopedics department, said one Pyin Oo Lwin resident, declining to be named for security reasons.

… Residents told RFA they believe the attack was carried out because of Min Aung Hlaing’s visit. On Sunday, a bomb exploded near a pavilion in Mandalay city, injuring 12 people.

Originally the bomb story link above went to RFA in Burmese - I’ve replaced it with an english story in Mizzima.

I mentioned some time ago that Mandalay residents whose families were pressed into forced labor to clear the palace moat will not visit the palace nor encourage tourists to do so. This is to say, you may more likely find yourself there on a military friendly tour excursion. I’ve also mentioned how everyone gets around on scooters & mopeds. So this from the Mizzima piece stood out to me:

In the aftermath of the explosion, reports indicate that the Military Council is conducting clearance operations for landmines and bombs around the Mandalay moat and city walls, with a focus on inspecting young bikers, as reported by residents.

It is hard to say for sure what is going on strategically, as we wait for whatever person or group to claim responsibility. I don’t think the intention is to dissuade the average person from attending these things, but it may be. It may be a warning to stop associating with the regime. It doesn’t sound like someone was observing an SUV military caravan and detonating. I asked an observer who believes it was “targeted.”

DASSK & U Win Myint moved to house arrest in Naypyidaw
Woefully underreported as “who knows where they are - we can’t confirm one way or other”, DASSK and U Win Myint were indeed in prison and NOT under house arrest as she had been in the 90s off and on until 2008. This is proven by a story that they’ve been transferred to house arrest

Also Mizzima, I’d missed that India appears to be supplying arms to the regime (29 March '24). US should weigh in.

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https://archive.ph/OuBG2

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The Irrawaddy:

As It Loses Control of Rakhine, Myanmar Junta Resorts to Stoking Religious Hatred

Arakan Army Launches Battle For Control of Myanmar’s Border With Bangladesh

Japan’s ‘Special Relationship’ With Myanmar Has Abetted Decades of Military Rule

That “special relationship”—when it comes to aid, investment and involvement in the so-called peace process—has so far resulted in little more than making sure that the Myanmar military remains firmly entrenched in power. Than Shwe and now Min Aung Hlaing may conveniently forget to dwell on the anti-Japanese resistance in 1945 and, instead, praise the old warrior kings Anawratha, Bayinnaung and Alaungpaya, because they know full well that it is the Japanese far-right that since 1962 has been a main benefactor and supporter of continuous military rule in Myanmar.

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22 June

Dr. Miemie Winn Byrd of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies has been traveling to speak to Burmese communities and was in L.A. over the weekend. She is eminently qualified to help exiles and expats understand the US strategic interests and mindset that drives policy. She can inspire and help people focus their energy into activities that will produce results.

Sean Turnell is also traveling the US and talking to policy makers and signing his book, An Unlikely Prisoner. He will be in California next week and will reunite with his former cellmate Kyaw Htay Oo in Los Angeles. There’s a full hour video of the book launch event c/o Lowy Institute. Also:

I had quoted from this but there’s a concerned message from FT about sharing content and when I tried to repair it, I hit a paywall. So, the lovely opening lines are deleted here, but it’s a terrific piece.

SeanTurnellLosAngeles20June2024
SeanTurnellLosAngeles20June2024619×1024 105 KB

I’m grateful for the continued attention Myanmar is getting in this thread. It is so hard for the community here and the population there to see Myanmar moved off the front page and really all the pages even as their sacrifices are significantly impacting the coup regime.

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19 June 2024
DASSK’s birthday is being celebrated as it has every year since about 1990 in blessing ceremonies in diaspora monasteries.

Re Sean Turnell, I will obtain the book and see him tomorrow. I’ve just learned I’m mentioned in it.

At the moment I’ve been reading the autobio of Gov Richardson’s co-nominee for the Nobel Peace Prize, Mickey Bergman. In The Shadows is a page turner. It was covered earlier this month including an interview on PBS News Hour.

My avatar here came out of contact with Mickey and you can see it on Mickey’s pin. :slight_smile:

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NY Times Daily, better late than never, notices that the kids are winning. Solid reporting.

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Re China, quoting

However, observers believe that during the meeting Thein Sein probably conveyed a request from Myanmar junta boss Min Aung Hlaing that China intervene in the recently resumed fighting in northern Shan State.

“Intervene” being a loaded term here. They may not trust Chinese boots on the ground within their borders. There are also different camps among the ex Presidents, each vying for their own individual interests and possibly at odds with those of Min Aung Hlaing whose coup is so obviously a failure now.

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22 July 2024

[Been drafting this for several days]

Operation 1027 Resumed
There is much worry as China is meeting with some of the ethnic armed groups and definitely not with the NUG. Following former Myanmar President Thein Sein’s visit per @GagHalfrunt 's link of 2 July, the regime sent their #2 man, Vice-Senior General Soe Win, ostensibly to “attend a Green Development Forum hosted by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on July 8 and 9.” This is the most senior-level general to visit since the coup.

Reporting in his weekly summary as Burmese Democratic Futures Working Group (BDFWG), University of Virginia, Myo Yan Naung Thein writes “it is believed that his main purpose was to oversee arms purchases and shipments, a duty typically handled by the army chief, a role currently held by Soe Win.”

BDWFG is providing weekly and monthly reports and analyses including detailed data on PDF gains and losses. I will reference Myo as MYNT and/or this reporting as from BDWFG.

Fighting has picked up in July with the Three Brotherhood Alliance launching the second phase of its Operation 1027 offensive across northern Shan State.

As of [July 3], The Irrawaddy reported, “the TNLA and PDFs had seized nearly 40 junta frontline bases including several battalion HQs and police stations while over 100 regime troops have surrendered in the renewed offensive.”

As to how those talks are going for China, Vox got into it on July 14:

The Three Brotherhood Alliance… agreed to the ceasefire Friday in the Chinese provincial capital of Kunming… The ceasefire provision was seemingly limited to Shan state, which borders China, and aimed at protecting Chinese interests and civilians in the region.

But by Friday, the military had broken the agreement, according to a statement from the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)… The junta attacked multiple positions in northern Shan State Friday and Saturday, the Irrawaddy and local Burmese outlets reported. Vox is unable to independently verify the claims.

The ceasefire came after multiple rounds of talks between the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood Alliance. Both sides reportedly broke a previous ceasefire agreement negotiated last month, and some observers did not expect the current agreement to hold.

“The three parties, the three ethnic armed organizations up on the border actually had no intention in participating in these talks and did so really only because of very strong Chinese pressure,” Jason Tower, country director for the Burma program at the US Institute of Peace, told Vox. “And I think that the ceasefire was really doomed to fail from the outset, given that there was just no intention on the part of the different parties to seriously engage in any form of deeper dialogue about the situation.”

USIP is well sourced.

Rohingya Genocide
On July 3 per “unoffocial press release No 2024/55” from the International Court of Justice, the court has 1) decided as admissible the application on genocide consideration for the Rohingya filed by The Gambia, and 2) decided as admissable a declaration of intervention by Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands and UK.

Of course (cynical me here) this is all just paperwork and Euro-Canada is not prepping to invade. But it’s not a good look for whoever is running Myanmar and it IS a good look for NUG which had already declared they would accept the findings.

There’s more going on, I just haven’t gotten to it.

On a personal note, I’d been feeling really down about some interactions in the community, but had a great time seeing Sean Turnell.

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The Irrawaddy:

Myanmar’s Dictator Extends Emergency Rule Again, Citing Election Preparations

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