The Guardian view on Myanmarâs generals: impunity has bred this ruthlessness...
Editorial: Hundreds have died since Februaryâs coup. Civilians are defiant â but while their resistance persists, so does the militaryâs bloody grip on power
24 March 2021
Lots of links from the terrifically written news magazine The Irrawaddy.
I misunderstood FB translations (which is quite easy to do - itâs really not that good⊠possible because thereâs a lot of symbology in peoplesâ communications around these events). For today, they were calling for a day of silence, and for people to show mass silence by not going anywhere at all. Results.
Also theyâve released 600 prisoners from Insein Prison held since early March. On the day of silence.
The coup terrorist regime is threatening to charge Sean Turnell with smuggling state economic secrets. The regime are uneducated, He is a transparent academic. I strongly believe they detained him because as an expert witness on the Myanmar economy if he were allowed to leave, he would answer honestly about the pressure points for sanctions etc. He would not himself write a paper saying âthis is how to get the regime.â It just has to do with his nature - heâs very passionate about improving the economy and the economic power of transparency over endemic corruption. But in my own experience he does not really do politics. If that makes sense.
More weirdness on the subject Iâve treaded lightly on⊠whatâs happening with the deceased. Forces are showing up at funerals to take bodies away. In other cases they are monkeying with the bodies of those who died in custody before returning them. I do think some suspect some weird ritual stuff as there are so many⊠beliefs. The Irrawaddy says families think the government is doing it to manipulate cause of death statistics.
Expect who knows what on Friday/Saturday, as it is Myanmar Armed Forces Day. In the 1990âs they held a military rally/parade in the national stadium. Very much like North Korea: Residents were compelled to attend. It was recorded for posterity. People were instructed over a loudspeaker when to cheer and clap.
For 2021, they had invited all of the armed groups they had previously made peace with. Most of those organizations have snubbed it.
At the same time, in areas they control, many of these groups are also offering asylum to people afraid of arrest and torture.
On March 16th, the death toll was around 150-180. The AAPP (who are keeping a spreadsheet) put the number today at 261.
Live on Southern California? Help amplify their voices Saturday in front of LA Live.
Aung San Suu Kyiâs court hearing has been kicked to April 1. Iâm sure theyâre getting lots of advice on how to proceed with her from the scummy PR/lobbiest.
The regime says it wants the Rohingya refugees to come back, part of their PR strategy to pin the whole Rohingya thing on DASSK. âCoincidentallyâ a massive fire has torn through the entire refugee camp at Coxâs Bazar.
Evening update
25 March 2021
I dunno about you, but I am still processing how profound the 3/24 Silent Disobedience really was. It was very much driven by the horrific shooting of that 7 year old girl. But up until the actual day the CDM were debating internally, thinking it would fail as people have to go about some kind of business. That could weaken the perceived influence of the CDM. Yes there are hundreds of thousands of people who have protested by now, but it is a nation of 55 million. All of them staying home? Thatâs a better show of unity than weâve been able to get in any one day in the US over a health threat that had already killed more people than the Coup Regime by the time it was (loosely) imposed. Turns out, in the morning, the regime sent loudspeaker trucks through all the neighborhoods urging people to go about their regular business, and this really clenched the deal for everyone - the regime was threatened by it, so even people who maybe hadnât been planning to participate decided to do so.
Al Jazeera has of course done great coverage of the plight of the Rohingya, but also of Myanmar in general. When ASEAN was first entertaining the SLORC/SPDC for possible entry, a group of exiles, human rights and environmental organizers formed what has become a lasting institution and an important, if moderately sized, thorn in ASEANâs side: ALTSEAN. Delightful short interview with leader Debbie Stotthard on FB. Sorry, Iâm trying to find it elsewhere.
Debbie Stothard - From Al Jazeera English news 23 March...
US is adding two of the biggest regime-owned companies with ties to multinational corporations to the sanctions list. Theyâve also issued a number of licenses to control and authorize the flow of moneys to groups and NGOs while also cutting off the regime and doing their best to keep their grubby fingers off of any aid money. This is still not the sanction that would block petrodollars. More here.
Also from Al Jazeera, India is trying to force those who have fled to return to Myanmar.
Found a great resource posting as I am and doing a better job: âMohinga Matters: mohinga over everything.â This absolutely defines Burmese culture. Mohinga is a fish soup that takes hours upon hours to make. I had encountered the blog before but only just discovered theyâve been blogging the anti coup revolution daily with terrific summaries in English.
I received word that the US is creating a special temporary visit status, not exactly full asylum but for people to be sponsored here (typical of other forms of immigration/temporary visas) for up to 18 months. They can apply for asylum during that time period. Ideally theyâd be sponsored by people within their cultures or in places where theyâd have easy access to maintain their cultural ties and traditions.
Myanmarâs forest honey is unbeatable. I have consumed gallons of the stuff from Shan State. I leave you with this for now: By some dark arts in the mining region of Mogok, there is a beehive there in the shape of the three finger revolutionary symbol.
26 March 2021
Story of the day is definitely ON ARMED FORCES DAY the CDM has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Excellent timing.
Put in a ton of time the past coupla days on these so I need to pause. Many facets of this that I alluded to earlier are now getting deeper coverage by real life journalists. Example, the outing of children of the generals who have been raised with all the benefits internationally are now taking center stage in a social shaming campaign.
I keep drafting a detailed description of my experience of Burmese-Chinese relations. Itâs this cloud hanging over them. But the idea of describing it is also one hanging over me, at a time when Chinese Americans are in fear for their lives. So, trailing off for now.
Going back to one that we may not have been posted here weeks ago, a really great description in Vice about the Burman majority now regretting that they didnât take up a call earlier to support the ethnic minorities against the terrorism of the Tatmadaw.
Also lost track of a story with a beautiful quote by a young Kachin woman living in Yangon. She says itâs just so sad and painful. That the pain the Burmans are now feeling, they realize that even today they have not been mistreated as badly as her people who have endured rapes and massacres and called for justice in Yangon while everyone else just kept passing by and not joining them. Now they express regret, but it is not exactly helpful. She also points out that the Burmans refer to every other ethnicity as an âethnic groupâ and that language fails to recognize that they themselves are also âan ethnic groupâ (as, if I may say, are each of us).
Almost forgot why I even logged in to post (Pixies âWhere Is My Mindâ playing in my head): I am going to reach out to encourage the CDM to make detailed reports as they are receiving verbal threats that are actually open admission by Light Infantry Battalion soldiers of war crimes against the Rohingya. âIf you were Rohingya, we would have shot three of you by now.â Things like that.
Listening to the great Alan Clements (book list) who is posting daily on FB. He trained in Buddhism as a young novice in Burma. When the terror of 1988-1990 occurred, he was really the first to put pen to paper in a way that gained world attention:
Today he informs us that monks and nuns have initiated a march on foot to Naypyidaw. Iâve always thought of him as an inaccessible giant but found out weâre closer than I thought.
Further on the âethnicâ frontiers, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has seized a Tatmadaw base near the China border.
And the Karen National Union has the best response to the invitation to join Armed Forces Day, with the official English translation now published on twitter. Please check out the thread that follows - MANY Burmese apologizing to the KNU and supporting their insurgency against the terror of the Tatmadaw.
On that note I have really fallen short on figuring out what the CDM and CRDP mean when talking about a âfederal armyâ but to my understanding it includes all of these former insurgent armies of each of the ethnic groups. And they now realize the only people with training and weapons are actually these armies that can step in a fight the tatmadaw. But⊠they have done so for decades resulting in stalemates and then with DASSK in there, negotiations. Tatmadaw is 400,000 strong. Each of these armies is well under 100,000 and, at their peaks, was closer to 30,000 (the Wa State Army of the golden triangle drug lord Khun Sa, now disarmed) to 60,000 (KNU).
I was wondering who had made the nomination, because anyone can nominate anyone. IIRC a Norwegian far right politician nominated Donald Trump.
Iâm actually wondering how many minutes will pass until Trump or someone in his family posts some resentment toward the CDM for being nominated.
I was wrong that anyone can nominate anyone. Members of the Norwegian parliament (and any national government or parliament) can make nominations, which explains how Trump got his.
27 March 2021
On Armed Forces Day they killed at least 114 [this number keeps rising] citizens including a 7 year old boy.
There is a saying in Burmese about the type of man who cannot listen in a conversation or talks far too much (or about himself): âHis dick is wrapped around the entire world.â
And now, this.
Yeah I think this is turning into my first meme in Burmese if I can get someone to send me those uncouth words.
This threadâs so monstrous I will start making this easier with internal links. I posted above about the World Bank who resoundingly put the coup regime on notice. Now there are some op eds accusing the Biden administration of breaking up previously set payments via the IMF into two chunks in order to skirt congressional review. This seems counter to everything else Biden has been doing - I just want to reiterate that this has been arguably the most proactive administration responding to Burma/Myanmar crackdowns in the history of the Tatamadaw. Certainly many of the steps they have taken in recent days/weeks, one would have assumed they were already doing in February. But the real elephant in the room is Chevron/Total as the petrodollars dwarf everything already sanctioned.
Protesters in France arenât waiting. Theyâve poured âbloodâ all over the entrance to Total HQ in Paris (a place I had scouted for demonstrations in the 1990s - having already brought the Shan Princess to their North American headquarters in Denver. She was really quite diplomatic and in my own rage at Total, I honestly felt like a bull in a China shop). If youâre based in France or French is your primary language, Info Birmanie has been at this for decades.
I have no other confirmation but a verbal report of an uprising in Taunggyi, Shan State, against the occupation, >20 police killed by the townspeople. There are tight streets/alleys/âslumsâ that are not easily mapped or navigated so it makes ambushes easier to do. Itâs definitely not the safest place in the country - there have been two quadruple homicides in recent years.
Heading into Armed Forces Day, coup regime head Min Aung Hlaing again promised that they are protecting democracy and in the same breath he (or the state-run media) warned demonstrators theyâd be âshot in the head and back.â
Iâve cut off an info source. Itâs a message group in which some Burmese were sharing atrocity videos. Itâs both about my own mental state and knowing its the wrong approach⊠DO put it into a secure file, maintain a folder if youâre receiving those, and provide a link to those who are documenting it for the Hague. But for Buddhaâs sake donât throw it at me in an IM.
Mohinga Mattersâ Day 55 Report says CRPH is 80% towards completing the concept and negotiation of a Federal Army (currently that means coordination among all the armed ethnic groups) to replace the Tatmadaw.
Wondering if @markfrauenfelder or any of you other makers know what is the blue DIY PVC weapon pictured by Reuters.
At a military parade on Saturday, the general who led the overthrow of Myanmarâs civilian government last month said the army was determined âto protect people from all danger.â
Before the day was over, the security forces under his command had shot and killed a 5-year-old boy, two 13-year-old boys and a 14-year-old girl. A baby girl in Yangon, Myanmarâs largest city, was struck in the eye with a rubber bullet, although her parents said she was expected to live.
The slain children were among dozens of people killed on Saturday as the security forces cracked down on protests across Myanmar, in what appeared to be one of the deadliest days since the Feb. 1 coup led by Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, commander of the Tatmadaw, as the military is known. One news outlet, Myanmar Now, put Saturdayâs death toll as high as 80.
Thanks @jerwin. Updating.
28 March 2021
On Armed Forces Day they also deployed jets to bomb the Karen villages. I donât know if it was directly tied to the event⊠like âas long as weâre doing flyovers why donât you head south and do something?â
Quieter day now after the absolute horrors unleashed on Armed Forces Day (total death toll an unconfirmed 162 citizens killed). However, there were funerals which included anti-government chants so of course the Tatmadaw fired into the funeral.
Excellent reporting by Al Jazeera - I encourage you to check out their interviews of Dr. Sasa and the terrific UN Rapporteur Tom Andrews. I think Tom Andrews is the first UN Rapporteur to call for suspension of petrodollar payments.
My old friend Maung Zarni says the coup regime is now firing machine guns in Yangon and Mandalay.
Iâve been reminded recently of the social structure within the military bases. Just as thereâs a military chain of command, the wives of lower ranking soldiers are essentially enslaved to those higher up the chain to do their bidding. There is a lot of political games(wo)manship including bribes to influence the more powerful wives to get lower ranking husbands promoted faster or for other favors. A remarkable young lady who was raised in this environment and turned against the government is Thinzar Shunlei Yi. Check out her interview by Vice journalist Heather Chen.
No translation needed:
Evening update
Seeing footage of armed insurgents in Kalay (âKaleâ). FB Video, ârated PG,â no injuries. If someone more familiar with this type of combat may care to comment. They appear -to me- to have less soldierly discipline than people Iâve played paintball with. To really take on the regime, theyâll need advisors and boots. (though, boots vs. sandals is a whole thingâŠ). I think theyâll also need defectors from the Tatmadaw.
Kalay is far NNW beyond Monywa. It is known for large prisons. Families are responsible for the feeding and welfare of their imprisoned family members. To punish families of activists who live in Yangon, they have often relocated the most prominent political prisoners from Insein (not far from Yangon Airport) to Kalay. With necessary stops itâs at least 17 hours from Yangon on the new roads. From 1988 to mid 2000âs (the era in which many core Gen 88-ers were imprisoned five or more times or for the entire duration), 21 hours. Kalay also has an airport but regular travel by air would be cost prohibitive for most in that era.
Terrific piece in the NY Times about the Tatmadawâs cultlike military culture - you may see some resemblances to what led up to the US insurrection.
They still havenât cooled their jets - three more overnight strikes on Karen territory.
I know we have many BB readers who live in the Bay Area. There should ideally be demonstrations against Chevron at their HQ in San Ramon. Please get in touch with the Burmese American Democratic Alliance if youâre interested in this or any other actions in the Bay Area. Hereâs a profile of itâs founder, Nyunt Than. He has been one of the very few to speak out continuously about human rights in Burma even in times of relative peace for the Burman majority.
29 March 2021
US has suspended all trade. That goes beyond the sanctions even people on the ground had been initially calling for. However, I donât think this impacts the petrodollars.
France could be clamping down on Total Oil. US could be going after Chevron. South Korea could target Daewoo.
UN Security Council meets yet again, on Wednesday, probably to yet again make the very strongest so verbal condemnation as pictured in the cartoon above. In LA the CDM will be gathering at the Chinese Consulate at 11 a.m.
Meanwhile the great UN Rapporteur Tom Andrews continues to make a clear case for numerous other actions the UN and its member states can take. In what may be a rare move for a UN Rapporteur, he is calling upon the member states to take action and not wait for the deliberately clogged gears of the UN Security Council to move forward to enforce Responsibility To Protect.
The people are being killed with such randomness. Children. A doctor. An architect. A nurse who was actively attending to people whoâd been shot. A soccer goalie. A striking police officer. A soccer team captain. People on motorbikes. People in vans. People going to work or leaving work. People walking by a tea shop. The reputable AAPP (or AAPPB if Iâve written it that way) says deaths since Feb 1 have exceeded 500.
Maung Maung Swe, an NLD member and elected member of the National Assembly, and his wife were arrested in Pyin Oo Lwin yesterday (Mar 28) charged with violating Code 505(a). More on this code from Amnesty International - basically, at the moment everyone in the country is violating 505(a) - that is, encouraging any member of the armed forces not to follow orders.
Pyin Oo Lwin is very beautiful and also a racket for the regime. It was spruced up for Visit Myanmar Year 1996 and has stayed that way. Large âforeigner feesâ at the well kept tourist sites, and the roads are smooth. Many people in government or who are well to do live there. But thereâs also much beauty tucked away not tied to the generals.
Myanmarâs neighbors are acting like dirtbags. India, where many defecting Myanmar police and armed forces members have fled, wants to send them all back. Thailand is erecting razor wire to prevent more from fleeing Karen State which is being bombarded by jets.
I donât think that this means sanctions. The US is suspending trade âengagementâ, meaning negotiations for a trade deal, and it may cancel preferential tariffs for products made in Myanmar.
In addition to suspending work on 2013 framework agreement, Tai said USTR would consider Myanmarâs situation as it works with the U.S. Congress on reauthorizing the Generalized System of Preferences program, which reduces U.S. tariffs and provides other special trade access for some developing countries.
As far as I can see, none of this means that US companies cannot do business in Myanmar. After all, if all trade with Myanmar was sanctioned the issue of tariffs would be moot.
31 March 2021
Quite right. Sorry, I jumped on the headline. I found some great trade visuals from the âObservatory of Economic Complexity.â What a resource! It shows both how important and unimportant trade with the countries that can boycott them actually is. The regime is elbow deep in all of those primary export sectors and nearly all of them are going to countries that simply would not under any circumstances stop the flow of goods.
I did not know until today that the primary export to the North America (mostly USA) is âTrunks and Casesâ valued at $260M. Additional $135M to Europe and $54M to S. Korea and Japan. It would be interesting to know if thatâs something exclusive to a small number of generals who were given the sector to do whatever they could with it. You can also see Burmese resentment of China in the numbers there. The generals are making a bundle from sending ALL of the countryâs raw exports to China (whereas the real bulk value going to Thailand is from the gas pipeline). China manufactures/refines everything that can then be used further up the chain (turning Myanmarâs ore into structural metals, and providing all the materials to Myanmarâs textile industry).
Clarissa Ward of CNN is under full armed escort, flown into Myanmar to interview the coup generals. Deeply concerning to the people. PR guy no doubt behind this. They can hear but for some reason cannot record the extensive banging of pots and pans on their route through the city. Guessing theyâre being ferried to an idyllic spot. CNN really aught to not air any interviews with coup members until they release all 25 journalists still imprisoned. Apparently the regime already threatened the population not to mess up this trip for them. Among other things she has interviewed a pro-regime monk.
I presume everyone following this has seen plenty of footage of the soldiers destroying private property. Much of it is being up on cars and motorbikes. In some areas they have removed peoples security gates and fences. I donât know if this is to prevent them from hiding people, to take the fences to use for their own to control the streets, or to prevent these from being given to the CDM to construct their own barricades. Anyway, last night even more than usual they were destroying personal property at the entrances to houses, especially in Yangon.
CRPH has declared the 2008 Constitution null & void. This is minutes old and in Burmese but will come out in English.
A South Korean Shinhan Bank company car that takes employees to their job was assaulted by soldiers, bank staffer shot in the head and in critical condition.
The CRPH has requested that UN Security Council member states put forward a resolution today including a global arms embargo against the Myanmar military, targeted sanctions, an ICC referral, and other R2P action and put it to a vote. (Matthew Smith of Fortify Rights)
The regime has some big announcement of a âceasefireâ for all of April but the caveat is ridiculous. Basically it applies as long as there is no additional civil disobedience. I lost track of the tweet but this will undoubtedly get twisted into a massive development from the regimeâs PR kit - same as when they release people they never should have imprisoned in the first place.
Iâd mentioned the targeting of doctors and nurses. One of my favorite Myanmar experts, reporter Patrick Winn, is doing a longform piece on this and tweets about one incident here. Physicians for Human Rights are also tracking this.
So itâs a wait and see on CNN reporting. I donât watch it so I donât know whatâs on the air but I have already seen another piece presenting monks who disagree on the way forward. So the PR effort is going to leverage this and expect a lot more garbage coming out to generate doubt about how bad the Tatmadaw is. As a global community the one thing we can do is hold journalism accountable and point out that each time they cover this regime by its own voice, they are pulling air time and column inches away from people with much more legitimacy. With DASSK locked away, how much air time are they giving to other survivors of Tatmadaw abuses?
Sorry, I jumped on the headline
The Guardian made the same mistake:
Editorial: Hundreds have died since Februaryâs coup. Civilians are defiant â but while their resistance persists, so does the militaryâs bloody grip on power
Children were among those killed and injured in airstrikes by Myanmar's military on an ethnic rebel-controlled area in the country's southeast, a humanitarian aid group said Tuesday, as junta forces stepped up their offensive in the region.
1 April
Iâve messaged a couple of participants here about starting a new thread as this one is perhaps too unwieldy at this point. There are some major developments today so I may cut/paste to the new thread if I do that.
Side note before getting into the main theme today: China is increasingly worried about pipeline security.
Perhaps this is repetition but I think it will gain importance in the coming days, weeks and months. I just want to unwrap what I believe are the results so far of the $20M PR deal with the Israeli Mossad guy:
Items Next:
EMBASSIES IN PANIC MODE AS JUNTA FORCES SHOOT INTO HOMES
The South Korean Embassy in Burma advised Koreans in the country to stay away from balconies or windows, and to erase protest footage from mobile devices. The U.S. ordered non-essential personnel to leave Burma while the UK, Germany, Norway and Finland are also advising their citizens to evacuate. The American Center in Rangoon had earlier come under gunfire. The branch of South Koreaâs Shinhan Bank in Rangoon temporarily shut down after one of its staff was shot in the head and taken to a hospital amid a wave of protests, according to the bank on Thursday. Junta forces raided and opened fire on a number of private hospitals and clinics in Yangon last month. Soldiers and police raided the Tet Lann Hospital in South Okkalapa Township on Tuesday, and the Asia Royal Hospital in Sanchaung Township on Sunday. On March 18, they fired shots at the SSC Womenâs Centre in Bahan Township.
The American Center is distinct from the Embassy. Itâs a really special place. They teach English, have a media library and do cultural events. Thereâs also a British one. Both are excellent. Note the membership fees of 5,000 kyat/year? US $3.50.
Myanmar nationals around the world are burning copies of the 2008 constitution.
No New Currency? The German company that supplies the equipment and materials to print money is suspending their business with Myanmar.
2 April 2021
REALLY need to not spend (an) hour(s) on this today [update: failed] but if youâre outside of Myanmar and are able to do something, please set aside April 16th. We are going after Chevron.
So much time mulling over personal memories and self-debating whether this is the place for them.
Just as various depts of state are advising their citizens to leave the country or at least âstay away from windowsâ, Facebook has enabled and encouraged its Myanmar users to set their feeds to Private with an option that (if I understand correctly) allows their posts to be shared while not sharing their identities.
I continue to be deeply concerned about CNNâs coup-guided visit. I think theyâre going to have blood on their hands and history is not going to judge them kindly. In addition to the one below, I understood that four people were taken from the town after the initial drive through (with pots and pans being banged that they âcouldnât recordâ) and staged interview there.
Below, first pic, they are led away by govt agents. bottom pic: a few minutes earlier, Clarissa Ward interviewing them.
Video of them being taken after CNN left:
Please note the time stamp. Now the person who shared that has a warrant for her arrest:
And these three who were taken - I donât know if they are of the same incident or a different one.
That last pic, I think youâll agree that may not be what she really looks like. Gen Z-ers especially like to use filters.
Under pseudonym (I think I know who this is) an expert on international sanctions law spells out some very dire consequences for people who may think theyâre out of reach of US sanctions. This is fascinating. https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-column/us-sanctions-pose-huge-risks-myanmar-businesses.html
If a Myanmar company attempts to transfer US dollars from its non-US bank account to a Singaporean firmâs Singapore bank account as payment for goods and services destined for a sanctioned entity, US authorities will likely flag this transaction as a violation, block the transaction, seize the funds, bank accounts and/or impose penalties on the involved partiesâŠ
As illustrated by the high profile case of the Huawei Chief Financial Officer detained in Canada currently pending extradition to the US on charges of violating sanctions imposed on Iran, US authorities can deliver an unpleasant surprise to an unsuspecting person in a foreign country that has a extradition treaty with the US by issuing an arrest warrant, and cause the person to be detained in the country prior to extradition to the US.
For the moment, in place of molotov cocktails, the Burmese are demonstrating with a Flower Strike. Iâm quite sure CNN isnât there for it. Myangone Township, Yangon.
I think they may have indeed taken Min Ko Naing. No tweets from him since February 8th.