Myanmar: Ongoing Updates

Okay here we are. The BURMA Act (itself a mouthful) is queuing up and we expect Meeks to let it out in the next few days. Trying to get more GOP especially on the Senate side. But on the House side things are looking pretty good. There is no “there there” in the proposed legislation for Ted Lieu and Brad Sherman to object to on behalf of the Rohingya. In fact Rohingya are pretty darn happy with it as it is filled with references to their plight and the need for the National Unity Government to do more - without necessarily giving them the money to do so. And so, The Honorable Rep. Ted Lieu has agreed to co-sponsor what is, nonetheless, important legislation (it does a LOT for civil society).

Both Sherman and Lieu represent Southern California. Lieu wisely sat out today’s conversation in the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation. Sadly, Sherman reverted to his mid 2010’s self with questioning that was so nonsensical, the witness pretended not to hear it.

To be clear, there is no US funding going to the military regime of Myanmar. There is no longer a coordinating military/civil (tatmadaw/NLD) establishment functioning. We know that because on February 1, 2021 there was a military coup and the people who had been elected in October 2020 to take the reins at this time were instead placed under arrest or have since fled in terror with warrants for their arrest and formed a unity opposition government in exile.

Myanmar is not pronounced My Anmar. The Nobel Laureate and challenged National League for Democracy Leader’s name is not pronounced “Aung Juan Suu Key.” She is not now the apologist for genocide as she has not been able to speak out since February.

At 45:00 he goes straight down the rabbit hole. His speaking about the creation of the new nation state of South Sudan is one he was cautioned away from by the very parties he hopes to engage in this tired, wasted argument. That is, that either Bangladesh should annex Rakhine/Arakan State, the historic homeland of the Rohingya who have always considered themselves part of Burma/Myanmar, or the Rohingya should declare it an independent nation with support from the US - which would lead to a proxy war with India, China, Bangladesh and Myanmar, to say nothing of another major population of Rakhine/Arakan State, the Rakhine/Arakanese people themselves, before we get to the actual Bengali and Hindu populations in the area. In short, nobody in the region wants this, and when he spoke of it more explicitly in the past, Bangladesh regarded it as an international incident.

The question he asks is an absolute non starter. He’s asking if we should provide aid at a time when the government has not redressed issues with the Rohingya. There is no fucking government. The government has been removed. The people are not cooperating with the military. They are out in the streets and apologizing on social media for having been brainwashed about the Rohingya by the military. The money will not go to the people who have been carrying out the genocide.

Dave Shear doesn’t speak to the difference between the tatmadaw and the NUG. I wish he’d said something here, but…what’s he supposed to say/do?

Next, no we are not providing tens of millions of dollars to the regime to meet its objectives of genocide. We are not giving them any money. This whole thing is bumming me out. He has constituents reaching out to clear up just what is happening right now and will try to have the Rohingya leaders explain it directly to him.

Moving on, I’d like your thoughts on this idea which has just started circulating:

Will the fall of the Myanmar Kyat bring about the fall of the SAC? That is the question.

Soldiers’ pay is worth less and less every day, soon every hour. Most empires in history fell because soldiers no longer were willing to fight for their masters when the masters could no longer pay them. That was true of ancient Rome, the British Empire, and the Soviet Union. Will it be true of the Myanmar junta?

The NUG should introduce a new currency, backed by $1 billion of hard foreign reserves held in the US. It could be an e-currency, not physical paper. Or both. If the NUG issued this today, people can exchange 1 MMK to 1 NUG-kyat, so the NUG could issue 2,800 * 1 billion NUG-Kyat. But the NUG kyat would not inflate further, since it would be tied to actual dollars held in the US. Everyone would rush to convert SAC-Kyat to NUG-kyat. Then, the SAC-kyat (current kyat) would collapse.

The soldiers would not be allowed to get NUG-kyat unless they defect and give up. I think many solders would desert the Tatmadaw at that point. The SAC would collapse very quickly.

What do you think?

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I’ve no idea about the economics of your plan, but how long would it take for the junta to start arresting people for possession of NUG kyat? If the NUG kyat is an e-currency, they could set up checkpoints to scan mobile phones for forbidden apps, as the Chinese police do in Xinjiang.

The Communist governments in central and eastern Europe liked to arrest dissidents for illegal possession of foreign currency, which was an ostensibly non-political offence that smeared the dissidents as smugglers and greedy, selfish criminal scum on the make.

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There are many considerations I think. But they are getting stretched thin.

Here’s a much clearer picture of the economic disaster - potentially more of a disaster for the regime which has to buy stuff than for a population accustomed to trading and sharing stuff:

After taking ten paces from the Sherman craziness yesterday I have to say it was a good day. The shift by Ted Lieu was really many months in the making and has much to do with how the legislation itself has taken shape and been reshaped. Lieu did not compromise so much as the legislation could probably have done more to stick up for the NUG. But still his cosponsorship is a very big signal for unifying people.

Additionally I understand there’s a letter from Rohingya that unequivocally supports the bill in its entirety.

California advocates are making strong headway in getting support. Help is needed in other states but good sign ons from GOP members for Utica and part(s) of Texas in addition to at least two from California. More meetings coming up.

DASSK’s criminal trial starts tomorrow US time, Friday Oct 1 in Myanmar.

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Just some very sad news from this morning.

I was also sent the photos - I’ll spare you. This happened in broad view as I understand it (I earlier was told “daylight” - elsewhere learned it was 8:30 pm) and there are many theories including MAH/Tatmadaw involvement (recall that there was an assassination plot on the NUG UN Ambassador U Kyaw Moe Tun on US soil). But there’s also a certain amount of infighting, some Rohingya strongly pushing for resettlement in a safer and more prosperous place and others for a rushed return to Arakan/Rakhine State. And most wanting to wait until a safe repatriation is credibly assured. And there’s also outright criminal violence affecting the camps.

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5 October
Good news-ish. The Cardin/Meeks BURMA Act bill has been introduced. Please call senators and congress members to endorse and co-sponsor. If you’re in California we’re doing pretty good on both fronts. We need more help from Senate GOP. It is historically a non-partisan issue.

Yeah, you’d think they’d be so proud of catching her red-handed that they would want to show the world a transparent process. I expect it is being recorded so they can crank out isolated excerpts later.

Great article.

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9 October 2021
There’s a rumor out that Sean Turnell may be coming home. I am sure it is false, am chasing it down and asked the originator to explain. It’s false.

Some internal conversations here, wondering what you think. The NUG does not possess any real “levers” for formal international recognition as Myanmar’s government, but no one really wants to acknowledge the coup regime either. The Meeks/Cardin bill (really Meeks, as I think we’re waiting on the Senate version) really downplays the NUG, almost to a damaging extent.

But, we don’t want to lose the whole thing in debate.

Should there be a push to add stronger endorsement of NUG recognition anyway? It is one of those things the would be congress/senate sending a signal internationally but basically knowing that Biden cannot invoke it.

As an example, one house of the French parliament has endorsed NUG. The French foreign minister says they recognize nations and not governments - so it will go nowhere but it is still a signal to the free world.

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Bangladesh has faced a lot of pressure and criticism on the Rohingya refugees. In the case of the recent assassination, they are cracking down.

Top echelon militant leaders of this group are still in Burma. But, a great many Rohingya in the camps and abroad are celebrating these arrests and very thankful to the Bangladesh authorities for taking action.

Senate GOP are playing games. They refuse to cosponsor. They may be miffed about the process, control of the bill or something else entirely. Possibly they don’t want to piss off Chevron. It is a shame, because there has historically been strong bipartisan support for human rights initiatives in Burma. On the bright side, they don’t intend to block it and many will vote for it, but it would send a stronger message if they’d cosponsor.

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15 Oct 2021
The person I know has been held for a month without acknowledgement.

And this is a shocking codification of what was probably already a de facto policy:

ASEAN is potentially about to stub their toe even harder on Myanmar. With good intentions. They are talking very seriously of not inviting Min Aung Hlaing; however, they still intend to bring someone “non-political” to represent the country. This presents an impossible situation. Anyone who has not involved themselves in any way on either side will be under tremendous pressure and just to attend may be to risk their life. Something can be easily misinterpreted or reported back to the military. They amended/rewrote laws after the coup which can punish people for “making false statements” - which as members of this BBS and society in general, you know can be quite subjective. Article here, anyway.

It really would have to be someone who doesn’t need to return to Myanmar. So, likely candidates are non citizens of the country who maybe haven’t been there in some time. No one who escaped after the coup can be considered “non political.”

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18 Oct 21
I think I’ve talked before about the prisoners and how the regime saves them up for future horse trading with them. ASEAN shutting out Min Aung Hlaing is a severe rebuke. Not being seated at the UN also basically means nobody thinks he is or should be running a country.

So now, they regime says they’ll release 5,600 some odd political prisoners who never should have been taken, and who likely have lost years of their lives to trauma, malnourishment, torture and other health threats that go alongside the inhumane treatment meted out to most if not all of them.

Tom Andrews replies:

To anyone who’s gone a round with a Burmese military leader, this is the only right response. Yes, it’s better that they are released. No, it is not a “positive development” that means the regime is suddenly open to the idea of stepping down.

And what about the rest of the prisoners? Here’s the AAPPB latest.

I do hope they’ll let Sean Turnell go back to AU, release my relative to return home, and stop with the kangaroo trial of DASSK.

My team is talking with several more congressional offices this week.

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Above, I should have included Danny Fenster as a hopeful release as well as the journalistic partner of Nathan Maung. In a heart wrenching move, the junta released Maung who is a US citizen while continuing to detain and abuse Hanthar Nyein, a Myanmar national. It is not clear to me yet whether Hanthar was among the journalists released.

What has happened, I learned in heart-wrenching testimony this morning, is that families are learning for the first time of deaths of their loved ones that may have occurred while in custody months ago. One was a doctor. Here’s another:

We’re also learning that at least ten prisoners were released and re-arrested within hours.

I think I’ve mentioned how they’re now taking family members of people with warrants who are in hiding. In Mon State, they have now taken a 94 year old woman, in hopes that her son (an NLD leader) will turn himself in.

Finally for today, oy vey.

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20 Oct 2021
Today was a holiday in Burma. Embassy was closed. Troops have been massing near the anti-regime strongpoints of ethnic towns and there are overflights of jets and gunfire heard at midnight. In recent weeks entire villages have been burned down. in a Christian Kachin area, 8,000 of the town’s 10,000 people fled into hiding. There is now fear of unprecedented violence at the close of the rainy season which is coming in days. In Kachin State they are marching peacefully by candle light.

Note among those re-arrests, this was at a prison in Meiktila where they had only released 38 prisoners. 11 were taken back in custody. Ten NLD members and one elected member of parliament.

I don’t really trust news sources on numbers of released unless/until those numbers are confirmed by AAPPB. Some confusion on the numbers too. Based on one reading, that announcement of 5000+ releases may have been misinterpreted from a carefully worded statement with exactly that intent. >4000 may be “having charges dropped” but that could include people on the run or people who didn’t even know they are being charged. The reason: in a move toward deeper opaqueness and having disputable numbers between themselves and AAPPB, the regime amended the due process laws no longer requiring themselves to issue warrants in March.

See where it flatlines? The number had been 1,989 since early April. That recent dip would account for only a few of those original warrants being removed. Also note in this graph how the total number of arrestees continues to climb. The night before this festival, nineteen youth in Wae-Kyun Ward, Dawai who were preparing flowers for their town ceremony were abducted by the military.

But my main point here is, that number the regime is putting out there about thousands being released or forgiven may be totally misunderstood. There may be thousands of secret warrants that they’ve decided to drop and mashup with a much tinier number of prisoners they will be releasing. Time will tell. For the moment, little progress is documented. As a kind of baseline, check out the Oct 16 numbers to compare to the above (look at “total arrested” and “still detained”):

“Progress.” Not really.

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Excellent piece. Tom Andrews’ line, again focusing on 1) money, 2) power and 3) legitimacy is so clear and perfect, we’ve been citing it as the wrap up in our talks with congressional staffs.

24 Oct 2021
Mass Bombings by Democratic Forces
Odd that this is dated on the weekend, Oct 23-24. My guess is the goal was to cause defections and actually minimize casualties. Mass bombings by pro democracy groups. I have seen photos of the bombs being assembled and am sure glad I don’t have to resort to trying to safely build bombs crouched on a dirt floor with no protective gear… I also know that bomb builders have been injured, in one case trying to remove excess gun powder from a pan ignited it and caused severe burns to multiple people. They have been encasing the gunpowder in concrete, what looked to be molded in 2-liter plastic bottles, with remote detonators. They have on Oct 23 and 24th bombed military councils in the regions of Bago, Mandalay, Sagain, Magway, Yangon and Ayarwaddy. I am going off of FB translate which frankly SUCKS. But will try.

Sagaing Region: Up to 15 killed which might include a general. Numerous injuries including one Peoples Defense Force (PDF). Bombings at multiple sites. Six bombs in one location injured three.

Irrawaddy: 1 killed, 3 injured. PDF bomber killed.

Magway: Attack at 5:54 am Saturday with one injury and 8 am Sunday. Sunday deaths unknown.

Bago: Governor’s office. Audio bomb at multiple administrative offices, no casualties. Bomb in Bago City, casualties unknown. Another 5pm Saturday @ Municipality office in Tharyarwaddy District Kyopinkauk Township.

Mandalay: 2 bombs and possibly 5 other bombs, injuries unclear.

Yangon: 3 bombs at a car line company. Locals say 24 bombs have been exploded and casualties unknown yet.

On another note, remember how I described my crazy way of meeting the famous 88 gen leader Jimmy? I think you can click here to get to it:

They got him. Facebook reports indicate he was shot, taken to the hospital and may die. Nilar Thein, his wife, is a significant figure (perhaps the most high profile woman of Gen 88). I had thought she had a warrant as well but can’t find the info.

Update: It appears he’s in the hospital and conscious but still in a tough place medically speaking.

Also stumbled across this.

I would only roughly translate the humor. Monks are not “supposed” to be involved in what I call human rights and what Burmese call “politics.” The Saffron Revolution was different: that was, for them, a response to a specific challenge the regime’s actions brought upon the religion. For now their lack of involvement indicates that the chief monks are saying not to do any of this. So this may be done with a bit of humor in mind and is definitely taken that way.

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1 Nov 2021
This may go somewhere, or nowhere.

He may be able to broach some topics with the regime where others have fallen short. His split with DASSK was so acrid, although it had to do with the Rohingya, the coup leaders may decide that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

They are laying low about any talk of getting Americans released, but this happens to be a special area of focus for the Richardson organization and there are excellent people there.

I’m remembering Chris Rock’s routine about Jesse Jackson succeeding where the official channels failed to get hostages released elsewhere: “You really want to get revenge? Release them to ME.” The most well known American being held is Danny Fenster. He just had his bail hearing a few days ago. Justice delayed as the judge has reportedly suffered a broken arm. The next hearing is Nov 3. I suspect this has something to do with the timing of this trip.

This appears to be a jointly led trip, Richardson and a former US Ambassador to Indonesia. So, there are regional implications here after ASEAN had uninvited Min Aung Hlaing to their latest summit.

More about the Richardson org and this area of expertise:

It’s a long video but shows what a special role they play as (perhaps) unofficial partners to the official US diplomacy channels.

I may keep updating as I remember things I forgot. 79 year old NLD member Win Htein has been given a 20 year sentence by the kangaroo court for “treason” which one charge levied for opposing the treasonous coup.

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3 November 2021
Crap. Bail denied. Charges added.

[edit] That new charge? “…under a catch-all provision that calls for a prison term of six months to five years for violating visa conditions.” So basically, if you overextend your visit, they want you to stay in the country longer?

Richardson has now met directly with the coup leader Min Aung Hlaing. This may raise hackles in the short term and studied in political science classes in the future.

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Military Juntas do that. Just ask Peter Greste.

Curious. I didn’t find anything about him overstaying his visa. That was the charge just added to Danny’s case (I’ve clarified that now). It would be interested to know if this has happened elsewhere. Normally, overstay your visa, they simply kick you out of the country.

I meant more that they tend to arrest reporters, foreign or domestic, on transparently stupid charges, to send the message that anyone who tries to “be a reporter” can and will be disappeared into the legal system.

Greste was lucky that while Egypt’s Junta was subject to sufficient external pressure to effectively release him. (Possibly because Egypt really needs that tourist income.) The Junta in Myanmar simply doesn’t care.