That’s the thing - if he doesn’t have much of an inner circle, you can become that inner circle. Think of this as a little bit like if George W Bush didn’t have his cadre behind him already. Who will be the Karl Rove or the Donald Rumsfeld or Dick Cheney of a Trump presidency? That’s up for grabs, and that’s a powerful position to have.
…and if you’re part of Trump’s Inner Circle, you can reliably go up to him, say, “Heh, I know, our president, amirite?” and get a better deal for you.
Response to Nate:
Derp Derp, ya think thunk?
The hard part is that Trump can and will eat Clinton’s lunch, then steal her allowance, loan it back to her at usury rates, and murder her when she defaults.
Yet people are sometimes selecting Hillary because she seems less risky… which is what makes her so incredibly vulnerable.
to be fair, he also said that trump could either barely win, or lose in a landslide.
Pollster 101: Predict everything.
That’s right. Silver’s central point was that a major 40 year realignment may be happening.
And I really did not get the impression from the article that Nate Silver thought Mr. Drumpf was likely to win the general election. He said:
…I’d agree with David Plouffe’s assessment that a general election with Trump on the ballot is hard to predict and that Trump “could lose in a landslide or win narrowly.” But if I wouldn’t bet on an anti-Trump landslide, I’m also not sure I’d bet against one. …
Even GOP leaders are beginning to seriously consider dems over Donald “kill-their-families” Drumpf.
well, my interpretation was not that Nate was trying to cover all bases as much as he was saying that if Trump wins, it will be a very slim margin. otherwise, he’s more likely going to lose and lose big.
Sure, moderates will be moderates and whether they know it or not they’d not even be disappointed with Clinton even if they’re holding their nose when they mark their ballot, but how many would instead opt to stay home? Among moderates or party stalwarts?
If Clinton or Sanders end up needing those votes to top Trump, that’s a shit job running that GOTV campaign, I wouldn’t want it.
But Clinton’s GOTV campaign is already going to be mediocre and if she faces Trump will rely on fear of the other guy. Not inspiring GOTV stuff.
Since NAte and everyone else think it’s likely to be a close thing if it plays out Trump as nominee, the GOTV campaigns may well decide it. Trump has a severe advantage there, and he’s barely begun plying that portion he will poll well with, that portion of the electorate that could never be bothered before.
But no one ever offered them a monster truck rally wrapped in a WWF match wrapped in a free burrito for every vote…
Note to self:
Fashion* a wrestling championship belt featuring the seal of the office of the President of the United States, sell to White House at extreme markup.
*use quality materials
So true.
Yes, though I still think Nate Silver is very skeptical of Trump’s chances and also thinks the GOP is breaking. The central point of that article was about the GOP maybe undergoing a 40 year realignment.
Ah, the “Democrats for Nixon” movement. led by John Connally (Kennedy’s Sec’y of Navy and fellow car passenger on That Day). Mc Govern upset Southern Dems in several ways, including giving a $1,000 “grant” to every American, 40% defense reductions (and not just in 'Nam; he wanted large numbers of US troops out of Europe, too), and amnesty for self-exiled draft dodgers. There was more – like negative income tax, Eagleton as veep candidate – that never made it to the general election, but from where I sat it looked like McG’s hippie- and black-loving, army-hating policies are what drove down dixie [votes]. (And why, FFS, did McG shy away from his badass WWII record?)
s/GOP/USA
I don’t know why, but I read that in my head in Drumpf’s voice…
We live in a dystopia…
I think people are pretty sure they know what they are going to get from Clinton: more war, more Wall Street, more globalization, more presidential indictments. No one really knows what they are going to get from Trump except more 'Murica! He’s been a Democrat before. He rails against corruption. It really goes two ways.
More liberal types look at Hillary and know she is going to sell them down the river. With Trump, there is at least the possibility of him backing away from international interventions. He might actually do something about the “soft corruption” of legalized political bribery. He offers backhanded compliments to Planned Parenthood. Maybe his whole rightward swing during the primaries is just showmanship, and he will actually govern more to left.
More conservative types look at Hillary and know they are getting more Bill with less personality. No matter how much invective the Republican establishment throws at Trump, it will never eclipse the two decades of shade they have thrown at the Clintons. Depending on how high you are on the Republican ladder you can look at his “Make America Great Again” slogan as the same code for big business power it has been for 50 years or as those dirty foreigners are taking all our jobs and Trump’s not going to take it anymore.
He really is the candidate that offers something for everyone. Sanders, on the other hand, is the candidate that offers something REAL for everyone.
There’s a big difference between now and Nixon/McGovern in '72. Nixon was an incumbent and prior to his presidency, there was this nasty war that LBJ had escalated. It looked as though Nixon might actually end the war, so most people felt like the country should just continue with the status quo. Nixon was a freak, but he did have an accurate pulse of America. McGovern was burned by the legacy of LBJ.
Actually, I heard a pollster say that Drumpf’s negatives are higher than Clinton’s. But I’m sure Silver regressed that variable.
Don’t forget, it’s gotta be YUUUGE!
[quote=“frauenfelder”]Trump will probably be the GOP nominee and possibly become President.
[/quote]
If that happens I hope President Obama demands to see President Trump’s long form birth certificate.
Clinton v Trump… it’s got to be independent candidate time!
Yeah, but he was holding on to the “Trump will fade” idea longer than even the pundits.
