Neoliberalism, Brexit (and Bernie)

UKIP is the problem. They have hijacked the political process and no-one knows what they mean which is exactly what they want. Even George Osborne this morning was saying clamping down on racism is one of the primary concerns of the government now. What does ‘control by the people’ mean parliamentary sovereignty, popular sovereignty or direct democracy? Do UKIP supporters understand the distinction between civic nationalism which the party espouses publicly and ethnic nationalism, or their belief that Welsh, Irish and Scottish nationhoods are false nationhoods which seems to negate any distinction between English and British?

Farage was on TV last night saying he has not yet gone far enough until there is total withdrawal from Europe and today he has been threatening the European Parliament that it will be worse for you than it will be for us if you don’t give us exactly what we want.

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I’ve been thinking about this lately too in response to frequent interjections from the more libertarian side of the bbs commentariat with the theme of “any time the government tries to intervene, it ends up a corrupt, wasteful experiment full of regulatory capture and gaming of the system that makes things worse.” They cite examples like the housing bubble and the fact that the government “forced the banks to make bad loans to get as rich as they possibly could off the backs of poor people, I mean, what could they do? The government made them do it.” Their point is always that the government should therefore stop trying to do things. The response I’ve been formulating to this collective thesis is “Perhaps, instead, the problem is that the government uses markets as a tool to enact its social programs.”

We’ve been looking for apartments in NYC for the last few months, and are more risk-averse than we used to be so have been reading leases more carefully than we used to, and diving into the ugly world of rent stabilization loopholes and landlord games*. It’s a tangled, awful nightmare of government having to bribe, cajole, and police landlords into carving out a space for poor people, all the while landlords finding a way to avoid doing just that. And this is all a product of trying to enact social welfare policies through the conduit of a for-profit industry. Opposites may attract in relationships, but with philosophies so wholesale opposed to each other, this just seems like a match made in hell. I’m more convinced than ever that all housing should be a nonprofit venture.

This has made me a bit wary of basic minimum income as the end-all-be-all of social programs. As you say, without the coupling of other powerful regulations or a wholesale philosophical shift in the markets for necessary goods and services, it’s just shifting the bottom rung, and putting more blood into the rocks to be squeezed out.

*specifically the loopholes around “legal rent vs. temporary preferential rent” and “major capital investment”

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I provided you a link to the CPPIB website that shows their current asset profile. Since you apparently can’t click that, here’s the screenshot:

If you can’t admit they have assets and that they earn interest on those assets then you have declared yourself immune to discussion.

We agree that pensions are ponzi schemes and that they won’t be able to cover their liabilities and that the one day the young are going to be paying into a system that they will never see anything back from. This conversation is you trying to convince me of my own opinion while denying the most basic facts about reality.

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Look, we’re working as hard as we can to dislodge England from the European continental plate so that we can Bugs-Bunny-GIF you out to the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, but it’s going to take some time.

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I think I’ll be skipping that article. Because that quote alone seems deeply myopic in a way that just angers me. Certainly not everyone benefits from market level increases in this shit, particularly property value increases. But noone benefits when the the economy crashes. Just as an example lets take the very real, very direct effects of the Pound falling. The pound lost around 30% of its value in something like 12 hours. The vote happened on Thursday, and when you woke up Friday your savings, and your paycheck were 30% smaller than when you went to bed. If when you went to bed on Thursday a gallon of milk cost the equivalent of $5, then when you woke up the next morning that gallon of milk cost the equivalent of $6.50. In 12 hours. I don’t care what level of society you live at (or that that’s a bit of a simplification) that’s bad for you. The strength of the Pound isn’t just an abstract used for trading, it represents the real purchasing power of the currency the people of the UK are paid with and live by. There are some narrow metrics by which a weak Pound can be beneficial (it attracts tourism for one, something that’s negated by all the jingoism), but they don’t likely offset the associated negatives. And the further down it goes the larger that disparity. Those stocks that are tumbling? Those companies are already, according to reports, laying people off or planning to. Including in the US.

Its all well and good to wax poetic about the benefits that might be seen, or progressive changes that might be made. But arguing that the economic downturn that’s already starting is beneficial simple because the poor are slightly less directly hurt by it is cruel and naive. How many of the economically not well off did better during the great recession simply because Wall Street got hit hard? I was one of those people without savings, who did not benefit from an inflated housing market, and could not take advantage of the market. I lost my job and my home because of that shit. And endless think pieces and studies have been written about how those at the lower margins of society, and the young, were increasingly forced into low paid, low benefit, zero advancement, service jobs.

And as an added problem we heard very similar things in the US after 08. Especially in NY and other cities. The recession was going to lower property values, the damage would be bad but as an upside rents would finally go down. The yearly increases would stop! The city would become more livable for the working! It never happened. Rising rents slowed for a time, but NYC and many other places have only become more expensive to live in over time.

In short you can get some frosting on this shit sandwich. That doesn’t make it a good move. That doesn’t mean that there will not be large negative effects. Negative effects that disproportionately effect the working class and the poor (including the very people who voted for this). “Large parts of the country have been haemorrhaging jobs for
years.” That doesn’t stop because of Brexit, if anything all parts of the country are now at risk of haemorrhaging jobs. And the wealthy who do benefit from all that? Who have taken vast hits in their trading portfolios? They’re still billionaires. The middle and impoverished classes have a much, much short fall to the point where they’re ruined.

Which is to say nothing of the fact that the UK has imposed this situation on another nation. A nation that did not get a say, and now has a minimum of control over how it is effected. The close economic ties Ireland has with the UK likely mean a huge economic downturn there. After the UK (yes the UK! bastions of self determination in the face of EU bureaucracy), Germany and the IMF strangled recovery there by forcing severe austerity measures after 08. The IMF has apologized. The UK has voted to tank their economy a 2nd time.

If hopes and wishes were loaves and fishes…

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Something along this vein came up last night when a friend was over. There’s a particular activity she wants my daughter to get involved in, one that doesn’t have a lot of locations available, so she was arguing I should become a member of a private club to make it possible. Then a little while later she mentioned that a wealthy acquaintance had donated a big check to a charity whose mission was to enable poor city kids the ability to engage in this wonderful activity, and as a result his kid was able to take (paid) lessons during otherwise-free times at the charity. I looked at her and said: so, I could donate money to a charity whose cause I think is honorable, instead of giving that money to a private club…why wouldn’t I do that, instead? Same end result for us, but a better path for the money.

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UKIP have precipitated a deep constitutional and existential crisis for the UK and an identity crisis for individuals. Leavers may be feeling euphoric for the time being but unless something solid is put together soon many of them may crash and feel the crisis too. The markets do not know who the Prime Minister will be, who the Chancellor will be, who the leader of the opposition will be or who the shadow chancellor will be. They do not know whether there will or will not be another referendum, will or will not be another general election before 2020. There is an ever shrinking tax base. We can expect higher taxes and spending cuts. European funding for deprived areas, those very areas who voted massively in favour of leaving, will cease. There is no guarantee that this funding can be replaced even if there is the political will. There will always be those who will profit from the misery of others, even if the misery was self-inflicted. I see no reason to rejoice in any of this.

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Supposing good will on both sides, nothing is preventing Ireland from seeking a free trade agreement with the UK.

Denmark has one with non-EU Norway, for instance. If, on the other hand, the EU bureaucracy chooses to impose a de facto embargo on the UK and Ireland suffers as a result, it’s hardly the UK’s fault.

I don’t live in the UK, but it sounds like a lot of the poor regions in the UK that were heavy supporters were already in a dire situation and sold a line by the proponents of an incredibly stupid plan, a plan that wasn’t even really a plan. I’m sure they’ll bear the brunt of suffering once things start to fall apart as well, since poor people are the easiest targets when it’s time to make the cuts.

Norway is still part of the European Common Market (or however its termed), even though it isn’t an EU member. Likewise there are extent deals and arrangements between the EU and Norway. And presumably Denmark’s trade agreement with Norway was negotiated through or with the EU. If Britian is no longer in the EU, and does not yet have a trade deal and other things in place with the EU, I’ve been lead to believe Ireland can’t negotiate a separate deal appart from those EU negotiations or before those negotiations are done.

Aside from that even if nothing changes in terms of trade between the UK and Ireland from here on out. If the UK’s economy falls, so does Ireland’s. Because Ireland’s economy is so heavily tied to the UK’s. It is worse if they can no longer access the UK markets, and businesses in Ireland can no longer benefit from proximity and common language with the UK. Even temporarily. But Ireland will see a down turn in some way so long as the UK does.

Now you can certainly blame the Irish government for prioritizing economic relations with a single nation so much, rather than attempting to spread things around a bit more. Its something that’s bit them in the ass before. But given that the UK’s government decided to turn something as critical as EU membership into a political stunt. Then the nation voted to leave knowing full well the economic consequences (and in fact in many cases loudly dismissing those consequences). I think we can certainly blame the UK. Whatever economic problems result will be the direct result of poorly planned actions by the UK government, shitty management of the Brexit campaign by those pushing Remain, and rote propaganda by the UK’s far right. That makes it their fault. The EU didn’t push them out, Ireland didn’t cut of trade and relations.

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Well

@Ryuthrowsstuff:

Then the nation voted to leave knowing full well the economic consequences …

“Why are you leaving? Now what’s wrong with our excellent peace project?”

The paper one is pissing on says “Collective agreement” (i.e., ensuring worker’s rights, cf. the current protests in France), I think you’ll get the rest.

Against the actions of the French Government, not the EU, right?

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Following demands from the EU for labour market “reform”, yes. “Reform” in this context means “cancel worker’s rights”.

Do you have evidence of this being demanded by the EU? I’ve not seen that mentioned in the reports I’ve seen on this?

It was mentioned somewhat in the Danish press, but that won’t help you a lot.

There’s something about it here: http://www.politico.eu/article/france-violent-labor-protests-could-tilt-the-scales-for-2017-francois-hollande-manuel-valls-myriam-el-khomri/

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