Should you short the London property bubble?


#1

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#2

Perhaps. I am struck by how heavily this dystopian vision leans on the idea that foreigners are to blame…

That’s a cheap straw-man dodge.

The same thing is happening in SF, but largely with Americans. The nationality of the billionaires is irrelevant…as it is to them. Americans are being pushed out to be shuttle-in servants for American wealthy elites. That London has a more global appeal does not influence the dynamic one way or another.


#3

I’m not really sure how he’s answering anything. He claims London is too economically diverse to implode- maybe he’s right. I have no idea. But if it’s anything like NYC, that diversity is rapidly disappearing. When it does, we will be in trouble. We can all see it happening here, but no one is doing anything about it- certainly not our soon-to-exit Mayor Bloomberg. Perhaps the new one will give a shit, but it’s hard to battle such $ giants.

A lot of people will say “just let it fall, there are other cities to blossom.” The thing is, there is something special in these cities worth fighting for- a human diversity which breeds an endless selection of interesting ideas and events. You’re not likely to re-create such a great social experiment easily, since these mixtures are a product of a historical time that no longer exists. If things keep going as they are, all the working-class immigrants that make the city function will move away. The real artists will move away. It’s already happening in NYC, and it’s just too darn bad. I’m guessing London is right behind us.


#4

Practically, I’d still do more research on the two mentioned companies. As mentioned previous comment: different property, commercial/industry/residential, act differently in the market. Also if the company’s holdings is already paid off and the majority of their money actually comes from rent and other services, I don’t think their share price will fall hard.

I agree though, London is overpriced, but not going to see a “high-rent economic desert”.


#5

Nopely.


#7

meh. these things go in cycles. i’m not saying to “let it fall”. but if we do, that will produce, with some pain, a new cycle of artistic and creative growth through diversity. Just like it did in the 70s for NYC.

i believe part of the reason NYC’s diversity has held on so long, is how assisted housing was spread into every corner of NYC in the past. There are many problems with this housing, but its spread is not one of them. NYC’s voters/tax-payers (of which i’m proud to say i WAS one) need to force this to continue anew.


#8

I realize that in the “grand scheme of things” none of this shit matters, as someday all of planet Earth will be fairy dust, but in the meantime, I’m hoping to avoid the “with some pain” part.


#9

oh, i’d love to avoid the pain part too. i just think its unavoidable until we’ve reached some equilibrium. not likely in our lifetimes and probably not in this century, either.


#10

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