Signs that China's real-estate bubble will burst and take the economy with it

Some parts of Canada? I thought Vancouver and all of BC was being driven my Chinese investments. I wonder how much of the Hawaiian Real estate market will get boned. Might be good though as seems no one can afford shit here.

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You can live in a rural area and own a condo in a ghost city that you never even visit.

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I don’t believe this. Most of what we learn about China in the western press bears little relationship with what really happens there.

Three decades of alarmism to that respect, count me as a skeptic until it happens.

If their economy is about to drop off a cliff it gives me pause to wonder why they are still investing gigantic sums in international development


Presumably because they want the real, actual, productive & functioning economy to be as big and strong possible, so it stands a better chance of coming out alright if and when the real-estate prices take a nosedive and cause a big chunk of China’s economy to crash.


It’s not just property in Vancouver - we’re the exoticar capital of the world. Cars are a convenient means of money laundering, probably easier than real estate. The car dealers don’t have the same reporting requirements as banks and realtors.

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Might it be their models look different? Also, real, productive, functioning economy? What does this mean to you? Do you see how they might perceive that differently? I would submit that the economy which accounted for the vast majority of global poverty reduction over the last decade plus has certainly functioned, fwiw. Maybe their models are less concerned with empty cities? I don’t know, but I suspect they might. And maybe the empty cities were a dry run in how to be the worlds biggest builder? Left out of these discussions is that Chinese built a construction industry capable of competing and even dominating significant global sectors, which they did not have in the prior millennium. So in less than twenty years they are capable of going toe to toe with the west’s largest contractors. That’s a pretty big deal ain’t it?

Hold onto your chopsticks, this is going to be a bumpy ride.

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Well unless the party tries to distract people from their domestic woes by stoking nationalism and military interventions. The invasion of Taiwan would have wide-ranging effects.

Even if the birth ratios are the same, I suspect that the gender imbalance will be felt most severely among the rural poor, because better off city-slickers will try (often successfully) to woo poorer women from the country. It seems to me that this will be divisive out of proportion to the statistical significance because it is easier to blame outsiders (from the cities) than others like oneself (for sexually selecting offspring)…


Whether or not there is a temporary trade truce, the U.S. at some point will disengage its economy from China’s largely because Xi Jinping’s breathtaking ambitions will make it impossible to maintain acceptable trading relations. Companies, especially low-cost manufacturers but even brand names like GoPro, are already moving links in their supply chains out of China largely because they foresee continuing friction between the U.S. and China. And they are probably correct in this view because Washington’s goals and Beijing’s are mutually inconsistent.

Disengagement is not now the preferred policy option in Washington, but that is the direction America is moving. Why? Disengagement is the only strategy with China that has not yet failed. Attempts at reconciliation have failed, iron-clad agreements have failed, WTO enforcement actions have failed.

Xi Jinping on Friday [said] (“China and the U.S. are inseparable.” No, they’re not. What trade policy once put together it can now tear asunder.

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the cynical answer? imperialism.


Yes let’s just disengage from our largest creditor. I’m sure that will go over well. /s

About the author:

Chang has claimed that the Chinese government would collapse in 2006, 2011, 2012, 2016, and 2017. Critics say that Chang destroyed his own credibility by making wrong predictions repeatedly

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