This multiple choice probability puzzle has been causing arguments for years

There are actually 2 steps to the question:

  1. Pick an answer at random.
  2. Answer a question about what you did in step 1.

The answer to #2 depends on how you do #1. For #1, you can either pick a letter at random, or pick a percentage at random.

If you pick a letter at random in step 1, then the answer to step 2 is 25%, and both A and D are correct. If you pick a percentage and consider to be integers in the range 0-100, then the answer to step 2 is approximately 1% and is not in the list. If you’re a mathmatician, percentages are real numbers, and the answer is 0% = B.

To decide which way to work step 1, we go back to grade school rules: It’s a multiple-choice question, only one letter is correct, and grading is based on the letter, not on the meaning of the letter. So we pick the first option and find that both A and D and correct, which violates the assumption.

Thus the correct answer is “it’s a broken question.”

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I have to wonder if the amount of care that went into devising this “problem” is the same as went into writing it…

“If you choose ai ansswer from this question, what is is an charance you you will be currect?”

People appear to be treating this garble as if it’s a work of genius. Sometimes you can stop at face value folks.

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The actual question is in the image farther down in the article, not the AI hallucination placed above the article.

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I believe the spirit of a multiple choice question is each choice is different from the others. Otherwise they are not choices, say if 2 identical answers are given, then it might as well be 1000 identical answers. Whether you chose #1 or #999 the outcome is the same. The correct answer is 33.33_% based on the available values, and since not an option, then 0% is the correct answer. And since that is 100% the correct answer and 100% is not an option the correct answer is again 0%. This oscillates to from 0% to 100% for an infinity and therefore the real answer is 50%, which you have a 25% chance of choosing. I hope that clears things up.

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Thinking Think GIF by Rodney Dangerfield

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This is true if all the answers would flag as correct or none of them. It’s rather brilliant honestly.

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Oof! The quality of the AI rendering is not far different than much of what gets shared on FB and Xitter!

The term being asked about is “chance” or “probability,” in the context of answering a multiple choice question randomly. The question asks which of the given options is the probability of choosing a correct answer at random. Without knowing the context of the question, the options provided are incorrect or incomplete. However, generally speaking, the chance or probability of an event occurring at random depends on the total number of possible outcomes and the number of outcomes that are considered successful or correct. For example, if there are 4 options, and only 1 is correct, the probability of choosing that correct option at random would be 1 out of 4, or 1/4, which is equivalent to 0.25 or 25% when expressed as a percentage. However, this is only true if all options are equally likely to be chosen.

In the given multiple-choice question, none of the options A-D matches the correct probability of choosing the correct answer at random, which is 1/4 or 0.25. Option B (0%) is the lowest possible probability, and option C (50%) is the highest possible probability if there are two equally likely correct answers. Option A (25%) is the correct answer if one of the options is known to be correct, but this is not mentioned in the given context. Option D (25%) is the same as option A, but it is not clear why there are two correct answers or what they refer to. Therefore, without further information, it is not possible to determine the correct answer to this question.

:robot:

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I think this hinges on the fact that this is a game show, so the correct answer is the one the judges say is right. Doesn’t matter if it’s “true” as much as if it’s “what the people deciding the answer think is true.”

I don’t mean that disparagingly, even though it sometimes makes for weird outcomes. I mean I think it’s a strong constraint. We know, going in, that there are 4 answers, and one has been designated correct. Therefore, we know that if an answer is chosen at random, it is 25% likely to be the correct one. That’s not what’s being asked here.

The problem in this case I think, is poor wording of the question. They should have asked, “If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance that it will be true?” “You will be correct” yields arguments. “It will be true” has a simple, straightforward solution. In other words, it makes no sense as written, but the goal isn’t to make sense, it’s to win, so what mistake do we think they most likely made in writing the question?

Note: In high school I once had a multiple choice history test with several questions so poorly worded I had to write out propositional logic proofs to decide which answer choices were internally-inconsistent or mutually-inclusive. It’s always worth remembering that tests are written by humans who don’t know the same things you know, and vice versa.

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If there are three options and none of the answers take that into account then the chances of randomly answering it correctly are zero. My head hurts.

The firat few times I saw this puzzle on TV, it seemed like a legitimate paradox. But the premise started to fall apart when I imagined Harry Mudd as an infant, and everything that infant said was a lie. It wasn’t hard to imagine such a baby starving to death. Taking the idea further, life at any development stage-especially one capable of space travel- requires the ability to tell the truth, because its physically impossible for humans to fly through space by themselves. There has always been, and always will be, a need to be able to tell the truth when it’s important to do so.

So if Mudd were to claim to be lying sometimes, when it suited him, there would be a way to verify or disprove that claim. But since he’s claiming to always be lying, then the real puzzle isn’t whether or not there’s truth to the statement, but rather to puzzle out what exactly he is lying about.

Kirk’s input here isn’t necessary for the puzzle, but it does help to distract Norman (and the audience) away from the part of it that can be solved, toward the part that can’t.

This multiple choice puzzle is only misleading because we are so accustomed to seeing sentences like this in testing environments designed to find out what we know about the real world. The format distracts us away from the fact that this isn’t really about anything in the real world. There’s not an actual question here, it just looks like there is.

At least the Rockwell Electro Encabulator schtick drapes enough of a human element around itself, to make it (eventually) obvious that it’s a joke. This one is more mechanical, like the still images that have a “play” button at the center, tricking people into trying to start the video.

(Not long ago I was at the store looking at the ingredients printed on the side of a cardboard box. The print was too small to read, so I tried to pinch the image larger with my fingers before I remembered it wasnt a cell phone I was holding)

As the confidence fraud industry learns to exploit deep learning systems to create variations on this gimmick, we can expect to be flooded with this kind of semantic bullshit to a far greater degree than we are now. I suspect that AI is going to be naturally better at worsening this problem, than it will be in fixing it.

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The answer is 0% because there are only three choices, 0%, 25%, and 50%. If there are three choices, your chance of getting a correct answer from them is 33%. As 33% is not listed, your chance if getting it right from the provided list is 0%.

I will not be taking questions.

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This is just a more complicated version of the statement “Everything that I say is a lie.”

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