Well, that’s 13 minutes and 48 seconds I’m not getting back.
I liked John McDonnell’s take on that speech.
“I thought Hilary’s oratory was great. It reminded me of Tony Blair’s speech taking us into the Iraq War. “I’m always anxious that sometimes the greatest oratory can lead us to the greatest mistakes, as well.”
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Do you seriously think Assad is capable of ruling the entire country at this point? We are in this situation because he was incapable of doing so even by rein of terror.
Yes, they want to fight us. That doesn’t mean we should avoid fighting them, because someone has to. It means we have to do it on our terms. The key is that ISIS isn’t just a terrorist group, they rely on a (semi)conventional army of tanks, trucks and men with guns. We can’t clear them out of cities with bombs, but we are very very good at hitting tanks and trucks from the air. That should at least slow them down until we can find a real solution or the locals start winning.
Shattered environment? The environment is already shattered. That ship sailed 12 years ago. We can’t make it much worse than it is at this point, at least from the air. We aren’t the ones dropping barrels of explosives from helicopters or firing re-purposed propane tanks from bulldozers.
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No, Assad will never be able to govern Syria again. But I don’t think the Free Syrian Army (we still support them because they are moderate, isn’t it so?) is able to transform in a civil government - too many conflicting interests, the only common element is “Assad must go”.
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I’ve never really understood the argument that we shouldn’t do X because that’s what DAESH wants. So what if they want it? They have a very odd eschatology that involves the prediction that they will face western forces and face heavy losses before they achieve greater success. They aren’t necessarily right, and they have already made big errors of judgement. We shouldn’t play into their hands, but they don’t know the future.
On the other hand, I sometimes wonder how hopeless this situation is - Many refugees really want to get back to a safe Syria where they can rebuild their lives and country. Despite the hype that you hear in some circles, there has been a remarkable lack of violence in refugee accommodation, despite the fact that German accommodation provides 80 toilets to 1000 people and puts people from many countries and backgrounds together in cramped conditions - with single young men representing the largest demographic by far. Burglaries haven’t increased in Hamburg compared to this time last year (despite the contrary claims of a recent viral text message), and reports of mass rape and violence have also been fabricated (although attacks on refugee accommodation are a big problem). Those coming over with the intent to commit crime are from safe countries. Even if a number of the main players in this conflict range from bad to terrible, this does not represent the character of the Syrian people at all.
I’m really not sure that air strikes in support of a peace process is necessarily wrong, but it can’t be the main focus at all; in isolation, it will just make things worse. It’s important that Syria can get to the point where moderate voices can be heard and elections can be held, and this may require direct action. Jeremy Corbyn may well be right that this will increase the risk of ISIS attacks in the UK, but that is to be expected and doesn’t really mean that military action is the wrong decision. Whatever we do, we have to be less scared of terrorist attacks and less willing to be swayed by the fear of them.
I thought this interview was an interesting proposal that doesn’t involve air strikes, but isn’t unresponsive either.
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I disagree, we’re pretty good at that. In the long-term every death that looks like random violence from democracy rather than ISIS makes things worse. That doesn’t mean we can’t help, but we’re not going to if we don’t take that into account.
It’s an awful argument but it’s natural that it comes up when the offered position is, in essence, no more than that we can’t let the terrorists win whatever it is they want to do.
I do agree we should be more interested in what we might actually accomplish, which is why I asked. This second time clevername has offered a real part of a plan, to interfere with their movements to allow other groups headway. Things like that, like what Henin talks about, we can consider if they are worth the costs. Fascists need defeat so bombs is the kind of nonsense that got us here.
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I agree. At best, defeating Isis is part of the means to an end. I am more optimistic than during the Iraq war as there is more of an international consensus and greater focus on humanitarian aims, along with a more realistic goal of peaceful transition of power, but force alone has no chance of doing anything but making things worse.
At my most optimistic, Europe convincingly rejects xenophobia and welcomes refugees, leading to years of a lot more positive interaction between Europe and the Middle East. Income from refugees living abroad and international investment supports economic growth and restoration of the region. The focus on the ground and in the west is clearly on more productive solutions than a military response, and people have the political will to see this through.
Hey, I didn’t say it was likely…
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We are good at hitting our targets, unlike some air forces. Care must be taken in target selection, but at some point you just have to admit anything with a big gun on it isn’t civilian. I think people who have lived in a war zone for the past few years can tell the difference between random violence and precise, targeted violence. For the broader world, yes there is a need to control the media narrative but in this case that isn’t so hard. Normally, the various local government controlled media sources in the region are not very sympathetic to our efforts (to make a massive understatement) but for once the governments of the region see the threat for what it is and I think their pet reporters will cut us a bit of slack. Not everyone in the region gets their news from Jihadis on Twitter. Even the Iranians are fighting ISIS, their propoganda line is that we aren’t fighting ISIS seriously enough. Al Qaeda is suicide bombing ISIS. The Taliban are fighting ISIS. Which is really a bit depressing when you think about it, every new Islamist group makes the last one seem like a potential ally in comparison. Only ISIS likes ISIS.
Oh goody. What price another split in the Labour Party? Been a while since we had one of those.
The Stop The War Coalition are disreputable? Fuck off, Tristram.
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yeah, sure. people who say things like “Paris reaps whirlwind of western support for extremist violence in Middle East” are totally reputable.
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